Low Pressure To Likely Form In Bay Of Bengal, May Turn Into Cyclone After Oct 25; Rain For Andhra, Odisha

A developing weather system over the Bay of Bengal has drawn the attention of meteorologists, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasting the formation of a low-pressure area around October 23. While Odisha is likely to experience largely dry weather until October 25, rainfall could increase in parts of the state over the following days.

Manorama Mohanty, head of the regional IMD centre, said the system could intensify after forming over the southeast and adjoining east-central Bay of Bengal. Rainfall activity may increase at isolated places in Odisha by October 27, depending on the system’s development and movement.

How Bay Of Bengal System Is Developing

The possible low-pressure area is expected to form under the influence of an upper-air cyclonic circulation over the Gulf of Thailand and adjoining areas of Thailand and Myanmar. The circulation, extending up to 5.8 kilometres above mean sea level, is likely to move into the north Andaman Sea.

Forecast models indicate that a low-pressure area could develop over the Andaman region around October 24 or 25. The system may then move west-northwestwards and strengthen over the next three days.

The developing circulation is also expected to bring heavy rainfall to isolated places in coastal Andhra Pradesh over the next three days, while other areas could receive light to moderate rain and thundershowers.

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Weather Models Differ On Cyclone Forecast

Forecasting agencies have offered different projections about the system’s intensity and movement. The American Global Forecast System (GFS) indicates that it could reach cyclonic storm intensity around October 24. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model points to significant intensification between October 26 and 27, while the IMD-GFS model suggests the possibility of cyclone intensity around October 28.

The system’s potential path also remains uncertain. Some models indicate movement towards the north Andhra Pradesh and adjoining south Odisha coasts, with a possible landfall around October 28. Others suggest it could head towards West Bengal and Bangladesh.

The ECMWF model displayed on Windy.com also shows a well-organised weather system south of Visakhapatnam by the night of October 26.

However, these are preliminary model projections, not a confirmed cyclone warning or official landfall forecast. Meteorologists say the system’s likely intensity, trajectory and destination will become clearer after its formation and subsequent monitoring.

When Could The System Reach The Coast?

Current projections suggest the system could intensify into a depression by October 27 and move into the central Bay of Bengal. It may strengthen further into a cyclone within the following two days, with a possible coastal crossing towards the end of October.

Some forecasts point to the stretch between north coastal Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha as a potential landfall zone. However, the timing and location remain uncertain, and further observations will be needed before a more reliable assessment can be made.

Odisha Weather Update: Rainfall And Temperature

Odisha recorded light to moderate rainfall at isolated places in Koraput and Rayagada districts during the preceding 24 hours. Padmapur in Rayagada received 30 mm of rain, the highest recorded in the state during the period.

Day temperatures fell by around 4°C at isolated locations in south interior Odisha. In contrast, some places recorded a rise of 2°C to 4°C.

For now, largely dry conditions are expected to continue across Odisha until October 25, with rainfall potentially picking up at a few places by October 27 as the Bay of Bengal system develops.

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