“Today, the difference to last week is that we found a way to win the game. That’s the most important part.”
Let’s start with the fact that Eva Olid is right. Julia Zigiotti’s 72nd-minute strike meant Olid-managed Manchester United left Birmingham on Sunday afternoon with all three points, a 1-0 win over Aston Villa in the bag along with an 11-game unbeaten run in all competitions (seven of them in the Women’s Super League, four of which have been wins).
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In an alternative universe, however, Zigiotti fails to score that goal and United are staring at a balance of four draws and three wins in the WSL. Suddenly, the phrase “winless in three” is lurking in the shadows behind this seven-game run without a league defeat.
All of this risks sounding obvious, but sometimes it’s worth stating the simple part out loud, as Olid did in the aftermath of United’s latest win, the eighth of her tenure since joining in the summer from Scottish champions Hearts. Just as a reminder. A verbal measuring stick of the strides made.
Because there was a time two months ago that United’s capacity to win was doubted, Olid’s start to life in the job blighted by a failure to win any of her four pre-season matches, followed by defeats against London City Lionesses and Chelsea by an aggregate score of 7-1 in the first two league games. Bones were picked out of Olid’s tactics, referendums delivered on the squad and the Spanish coach’s credentials for English top-flight football were questioned.
Two months later, United are fifth in the table with three wins from their past five matches, four points off London City, who fill the third and final Champions League spot.
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Sunday’s game encapsulated a lot of United’s improvements in recent months, as well as the struggles that still need to be addressed.
United once again dominated possession throughout the first half and for large parts of the second, yet struggled to carve out clear-cut chances and to convert the ones they did produce. They registered an xG (expected goals) figure of 1.94, with 18 shots in total and 36 touches in the Villa penalty area, three times more than their hosts had in theirs. Even so, the 1-0 win felt tight.
That xG number was an improvement from the week prior, when they could muster just 0.46 in a goalless draw with Everton — their lowest since the 0.20 and 0.25 registered against Chelsea and London City in September.
Despite Olid’s remit of revamping United’s attack, goalscoring has been at a premium in the WSL. They have managed just 10 goals from their first nine league matches, which is the same tally as Arsenal, Villa and Crystal Palace. Only West Ham United (nine), Everton (eight) and last-placed Charlton Athletic (five) have scored fewer.
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It’s not that United aren’t putting away chances. In fact, they have scored those 10 goals from a cumulative 9xG — a technical over-performance.
But the final-third game has remained a relative question mark.
United rank 12th in the WSL for accurate crosses (2.9) and accurate long balls per match (15.4), a sign of the shift in style under Olid as they look to build their way up the pitch with a back three, as opposed to a traditional back four with both full-backs pushing high.
Yet United have registered the eighth-lowest touches in opposition boxes (187). That cumulative xG tally is the fifth-lowest in the WSL, while their total of four scorers is the joint-lowest in the league, alongside Villa, Everton, West Ham and Charlton.
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The lack of influence from creative players such as Ella Toone and Jess Park has been notable, as well as the creative dearth left by the exit of forward Melvine Malard to Chelsea. Together, Park and Malard produced the joint-most chances for United last season (30), while also leading in big chances created (Park with eight, Malard five). Park has struggled to rekindle that form, and Toone has also found it difficult to impact matches.
Up front, Elisabeth Terland has not been able to shine either. While the Norwegian could do better with chances (she’s scored just twice from an xG of 2.3), she ranks 135th out of 138 for players with 500 minutes played for touches per 90 minutes (27.9), with an xG of 0.29 per game — statistics that point to a striker who’s lacking some service.
Teasing out the right creative chemistry between Park, Toone and Simi Awujo in midfield behind Terland has proven challenging for Olid, but she has not shied away from making bold decisions to try to address it.
Toone has been benched in multiple matches, and while the England player looked unhappy to be substituted on the hour against Villa, Zigiotti’s smart run to the back post to head home Hanna Lundkvist’s cross from a corner vindicated the decision.
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Zigiotti’s influence in attack has been one of Olid’s success stories this season. The 28-year-old defensive midfielder leads United in goalscoring with four, double the number she managed all of last season, with three of those proving to be decisive (she also netted in the 1-0 win against Liverpool and the 1-1 draw with Arsenal).
United’s shift to attacking with a back three (they still defend with a four) has afforded Zigiotti more freedom to get forward and crash the box due to the extra body behind, as opposed to prior seasons when she needed to remain responsible for any space vacated by both full-backs.
Getting more players involved in the 18-yard box is one of Olid’s main principles in her attacking vision for United.
Patience will always be required, particularly in the highly competitive milieu of the WSL. Against WSL2 opposition (and a heavily-rotated Liverpool) in the Players Cup, United have run riot, scoring 23 goals in their first four matches. Yet those heavy early defeats by Chelsea and London City in the league remain a crucial reminder of the importance of not forcing wholesale changes too quickly.
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Against Villa, goalkeeper Phallon Tullis-Joyce was called upon to make two smart saves, and United easily could have been punished for leaving too many spaces open on the counter-attack.
While Olid acknowledged the importance of Sunday’s win, she did not shy away from an honest assessment of the performance’s attacking weaknesses. Improvements are evident, as shown by the 1-1 draw with league leaders Manchester City two weeks ago and this defeat of a team who have held both Chelsea and Arsenal to draws this season.
Sometimes, finding a way to win is as much a sign of improvement as winning well. But as United look to evolve further under Olid, creating cohesive and clear chances is the next objective in line.
Additional reporting: Thom Harris
This article originally appeared in The Athletic.
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