Two of the SEC’s best will meet in Oxford on Saturday afternoon.
No. 13 Missouri (5-1, 2-1) has been one of college football’s pleasant surprises, as the Tigers have put together a head-turning resume despite the fact that they’ve been without their most dynamic playmaker, Ahmad Hardy, for the entire season.
No. 9 Ole Miss (4-1, 2-1) has a couple of marquee wins on its resume (Louisville and LSU), but it also got absolutely blasted by Florida in Week 4.
Missouri, meanwhile, obliterated the Gators, 45-17, the following Saturday.
All of this adds up to the Rebels sitting as 5.5-point home favorites in this make-or-break tussle.
Missouri vs. Ole Miss prediction
Hardy was a monster for the Tigers in 2025, but Missouri hasn’t missed the talismanic running back thanks to the emergence of Jamal Roberts.
The junior from St. Louis has rushed for 828 yards and eight touchdowns, and he’s coming off back-to-back 200-yard performances.
Roberts stands a great chance of putting up more big numbers against a defense that is giving up 4.3 yards per carry and 176.4 rushing yards per game.
The emergence of Roberts has been a boon for Missouri’s quarterback, Austin Simmons.
With so much success on the ground, Simmons can play more of a game-manager role, rather than a game-breaker. The results have been splendid, as the former Ole Miss quarterback has racked up 1,434 yards, 14 touchdowns, and just one interception.
He’ll be plenty motivated against his former team and the quarterback who took his job last year.
Speaking of that quarterback, Trinidad Chambliss has been excellent again in 2026.
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Only three players (Jeremiah Smith, Darian Mensah, and CJ Carr) have shorter odds to win the Heisman than the former Ferris State Bulldog after six weeks.
However, Chambliss will be going up against a terrific defense Saturday. Missouri ranks 15th in yards per play allowed (4.5) this season, and SP+ ranks the Tigers as the 10th-best defensive unit in the country.
Slowing down Chambliss and Co. is no easy task, but this defense is built to do it.
Ole Miss is at home and has plenty of big-game experience, but Missouri has proven to be one of college football’s most underrated teams. This spread is too wide for a pair of teams that size up as equals.
The Play: Missouri +5.5 (-110, DraftKings)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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