The NFL International Series continues in Week 10 with a contest between the Detroit Lions and New England Patriots in Munich. Folks in Germany might be in for a competitive shootout, as the Lions are 2.5-point favorites and the game’s total is 49.5 points.
One of the best player props from this contest aligns favorably with the shootout expectation. The best wideout in the game’s over for receiving yards stands out as a tasty bet. Even in a shootout, not everyone will explode, and a tight end in a funk has a compelling under for receiving yards.
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NFL Week 10: International Series (Munich) Best Player Props
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Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 78.5 Receiving Yards (-114) at FanDuel Sportsbook
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Sam LaPorta Under 44.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at BetMGM
Amon-Ra St. Brown (Detroit Lions – WR)
Amon-Ra St. Brown is one of the NFL’s best wideouts. Among 84 wide receivers with at least 125 routes this season, St. Brown ranks tied for fifth in route participation rate (88.3%), fourth in target share (30.3%), fourth in targets per route run (0.31 TPRR), third in first-read rate (42.3%), 25th in air yard share (32.7%), fourth in receptions per game (7.6), eighth in receiving yards per game (82.1) and 11th in yards per route run (2.49 Y/RR).
St. Brown has gone over 78.5 receiving yards in two of his last three games. He also has a plus matchup this week. The Patriots rank 29th in receiving yards allowed per game (175.2) and 32nd in yards allowed per target (9.92) to wide receivers this season.
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New England has been especially giving to slots, allowing 10.96 yards per target to slot wide receivers. St. Brown has inside-outside versatility, with a 52.3% wide rate and 46.2% slot rate this year. The Lions could increase his slot usage this week, too, to take advantage of the matchup, and St. Brown should eclipse 78.5 receiving yards.
Sam LaPorta is in a funk, and the Patriots aren’t a get-right matchup.
Sam LaPorta (Detroit Lions – TE)
Sam LaPorta opened the year on fire. In his first five games this season, LaPorta had 48, 52, 44, 84 and 88 receiving yards. In those five games, LaPorta had an 88.0% snap share, 81.2% route participation rate, 17.3% target share, 0.20 TPRR, 19.3% first-read rate, 15.9% air yard share, 7.24-yard average depth of target (aDOT), 5.4 receptions per game, 63.2 receiving yards per game, 1.88 Y/RR, 11.70 yards per reception and 9.58 yards per target.
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Things have come crashing down for him lately, with just 18, 33 and 32 receiving yards in his last three games. In that three-game stretch, LaPorta had a 92.7% snap share, 73.9% route participation rate, 13.3% target share, 0.16 TPRR, 12.2% first-read rate, 7.4% air yard share, 4.09-yard aDOT, 2.7 receptions per game, 27.7 receiving yards per game, 1.22 Y/RR, 10.38 yards per reception and 7.55 yards per target.
Unfortunately for LaPorta, the Patriots aren’t a get-right matchup. New England has held tight ends to 4.9 receptions per game, 46.7 receiving yards per game and 6.56 yards per target this year. Brock Bowers (110 receiving yards in Week 5) and Colston Loveland (69 receiving yards in Week 7) are the only tight ends to clear 44.5 receiving yards against the Patriots this year.
LaPorta is unlikely to be the next tight end to surpass 44.5 receiving yards against New England, making his under a great bet in Sunday morning’s NFL International Series contest.
This article was originally published on Forbes.com
Disclaimer : This story is auto aggregated by a computer programme and has not been created or edited by DOWNTHENEWS. Publisher: Sports.yahoo.com
