NFL Week 3 confidence pool rankings: Chiefs deserve vintage trust over desolate Dolphins

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Play time was over in Week 2.

Favorites went 10-6, another wave of quarterbacks fell to injury, and the Buccaneers were the next survivor pool epidemic. 

Baker Mayfield’s big preseason check might have been for the worse; Tampa Bay has failed to cover the spread in 11 straight games, which marks the longest ATS losing streak across seasons in the Super Bowl era. 

They closed at 9.5-point favorites, marking the biggest straight-up upset after two weeks of football and the fourth upset by an underdog of 6.5 or more. 

Week 3 confidence pool picks, predictions

16 points: Chiefs over Dolphins

It’s fair to trust the Chiefs are back on the saddle. Travis Kelce’s nine catches on 11 targets for 101 yards and a touchdown is enough for me. Miami eventually let the floodgates open for Brock Purdy, so don’t expect answers for Patrick Mahomes. 

15 points: Bills over Chargers

You couldn’t have drawn up a more inspired inaugural showing by the Bills at Highmark Stadium last week. The party isn’t stopping for the imposterous Chargers. 

14 points: 49ers over Cardinals

Maybe we underestimated Drew Lock, or perhaps the Chargers team that the Cardinals beat the week prior is just that bad. In either case, the veteran 49ers would have to forfeit to take a loss. 

13 points: Seahawks over Commanders

Jayden Daniels just can’t catch a break. Marcus Mariota wasn’t to blame for the failed comeback, but lack of morale was. Facing Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Seattle’s suffocating defense is a tough gear shift. 

Jaxon Smith-Njigba of the Seattle Seahawks celebrates after scoring a touchdown. Getty Images

12 points: Lions over Jets

Aaron Glenn’s head-scratching decisions in critical moments are becoming more conspicuous. The Lions have shown they can still hit the gas, and they will. 

11 points: Browns over Panthers

Only the Bills have scored more points than Carolina, and while the weather delay could have aided the Browns in their upset over Tampa, this is a trap game. 

10 points: Eagles over Bears

You’d have liked to see the Eagles secure a win over the inept Titans sooner than nine seconds in regulation, but Tyson Bagent or Case Keenum under center for Chicago draws zero faith.

9 points: Bengals over Steelers

Cincinnati’s defense has shown up while Joe Burrow and co. are clicking like old times. I want nothing to do with the Steelers right now. 

8 points: Saints over Raiders

Tyler Shough is another step closer to the breakout candidate of 2026. Although no one had the Raiders to start 2-0, Shough’s resilient playmaking gives the edge. 


New Orleans Saints quarterback Tyler Shough (6) passes against the Baltimore Ravens in the first half of an NFL football game in Baltimore, Sunday, Sept. 20, 2026. (AP Photo/Nick Wass)
New Orleans Saints quarterback Tyler Shough. AP Photo/Nick Wass

7 points: Titans over Giants

Jameis Winston can’t play four quarters of reliable football, and now on short rest in his first start, the door is open for the Titans to grind this one out. 

6 points: Packers over Falcons

Atlanta’s locker room is in utter disarray. Two games of Cooper Rush can do that to you. The underwhelming Packers can seize Michael Penix Jr.’s first game since last November.

5 points: Colts over Texans

The Texans are 0-2 for the third time in C.J. Stroud’s four years, and you can blame him and the offense. Their defense hasn’t been able to compensate, and Indianapolis’ offense will finally see its due.

4 points: Vikings over Buccaneers

Minnesota’s defense deserves merit for allowing three points — even if it was against a reduced Chicago unit. With Kyler Murray back, the Vikings are the sturdier choice given how disappointing the Bucs have been by all metrics.


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3 points: Rams over Broncos

Denver’s offense is off to a rocky start. With or without Puka Nacua, the Rams are the better team on both sides of the ball. Davante Adams made that clear on Monday. 

2 points: Cowboys over Ravens

Lamar Jackson isn’t enough to trust the Ravens anymore. Their blown fourth-quarter lead to the Saints could be a learning lesson for them, or a warning for us with the potent Cowboys on deck. I’m going with the ladder. 

1 point: Jaguars over Patriots

There’s no doubt New England’s defense has been elite, but their below-average offense is too concerning with Drake Maye having thrown four picks. The Jaguars’ advantage in turnover differential on home turf is where I’m looking. 

LAST WEEK: 9-7, 77/136 points

OVERALL: 18-14, 156/272


Why Trust New York Post Betting

Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.

Disclaimer : This story is auto aggregated by a computer programme and has not been created or edited by DOWNTHENEWS. Publisher: nypost.com