All bets are off.
Favorites went 6-10 in Week 3: the Rams allowed 30 second-half points from the Broncos, ugly turnovers cost the Seahawks and Aaron Rodgers lit up the Bengals for 411 yards.
It also marked three straight weeks of an underdog of 6.5 points or more mounting an upset with the Falcons’ 35-14 win over the Packers.
Although the Chiefs (-6.5) let the Dolphins hang around, they converted as our highest confidence pick; the Seahawks (-3.5) were our biggest bust at 13 points.
Recency bias only counts for so much in the NFL, and Week 4 offers the sketchiest slate yet.
Week 4 confidence pool picks, predictions
16 points: Ravens over Titans
Baltimore’s ground game and ball security ultimately prevailed in its enthralling shootout against Dallas. The bust-o’-meter is beginning to tick on Cam Ward.
15 points: Bills over Pats
The Jaguars’ 35-6 thrashing of New England is beginning to reveal the Patriots’ offensive problems aren’t just rust. What can Drake Maye realistically conjure opposite Josh Allen in Buffalo?
14 points: Bears over Jets
If Case Keenum can make it rain on primetime in his first start in three seasons, it’s clear Ben Johnson is running a fine-tuned machine. Without Breece Hall, the Jets are that much more at a deficit.
13 points: Vikings over Dolphins
Are the Vikings back? At least the defense is. Kyler Murray can continue settling in against a Dolphins team that could realistically go 0-17.
12 points: Chiefs over Raiders
Both undefeated, the Chiefs and Raiders are proving their respective doubters wrong. Kansas City just has much, much less to prove. Let’s reconvene about Las Vegas after this one.
11 points: Jaguars over Bengals
A win as dominant as the Jaguars’ over New England counts for something. Their defense is No. 1 overall and Trevor Lawrence is slinging. Cincinnati’s defense revealed old habits are still a problem.
10 points: Lions over Panthers
Even after a loud start from Bryce Young, a road loss to the Browns changed the Panthers’ outlook instantly. Detroit’s defense can’t keep points off the board, but Jahmyr Gibbs is the difference-maker against everyone.
9 points: Packers over Buccaneers
Not that Baker Mayfield was carrying Tampa Bay anyway, the Bucs’ issues are far deeper. The Packers aren’t looking much better, but they won’t have an undrafted rookie at quarterback.
8 points: Seahawks over Chargers
The Chargers’ played desperation football against the Bills, forced five turnovers, and it still wasn’t enough. Seattle is due for a big response after falling to a backup quarterback.
7 points: Falcons over Saints
All was looking up for Tyler Shough and the Saints until they blew a fourth-quarter lead to the Raiders. The Falcons are a different team even with a semi-competent quarterback, and there’s also Bijan Robinson.
6 points: Cardinals over Giants
The Giants escaped the trainwreck Titans by the skin of their teeth in spite of Jameis Winston’s recklessness. After Arizona just took the mighty 49ers for 30 points in a one-possession loss, they won’t be as lucky.
5 points: Rams over Eagles
Tough losses for both of these teams last week. At 1-2, the Rams’ dream team isn’t so scary after all. The Eagles still remain too volatile to trust.
4 points: Steelers over Browns
Maybe the Browns aren’t gonna Browns? They’ll need stronger wins to prove this is sustainable. Aaron Rodgers proved he still has some vintage play left in the tank.
Betting on the NFL?
3 points: Cowboys over Houston
Dallas mismanaged the final seconds against Baltimore. A learning lesson will prove enough to overpower Houston’s dysfunctional offense that’s dropped them to 0-3.
2 points: Colts over Commanders
A lot hangs in the balance with Jayden Daniels’ availability. Until that verdict, I’ll stick with a progressing Daniel Jones to keep the rhythm going after snapping the nine-game slide dating back to last season.
1 point: Broncos over 49ers
The Broncos are the comeback kings of the NFL. Brock Purdy is cooking like no other. I’ll take Denver to keep the magic alive against another quality opponent with key injuries beginning to surround San Francisco.
LAST WEEK: 8-8, 78/136 points
OVERALL: 26-24, 234/408 points
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.
Disclaimer : This story is auto aggregated by a computer programme and has not been created or edited by DOWNTHENEWS. Publisher: nypost.com
