The Chicago Bears have arguably been the toast of the NFL this week after traveling to Seattle and soundly defeating the defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks in their own house. Chicago is a 6.0-point home favorite against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday Night Football.
Tampa Bay is also coming off a win. They defeated the Falcons 16-0 in rainy conditions. The weather was so dreadful in Florida last week that it’s probably best to throw that game out of full-season analysis for the Buccaneers.
Advertisement
There are no such rain concerns in Chicago for Sunday Night Football. Therefore, Caleb Williams will likely be tasked with airing it out early and often against Tampa Bay’s pass-funnel defense. As a result, two of his pass-catching weapons have eye-catching receiving overs in Week 9.
NFL Week 9: Sunday Night Football Best Player Props
-
Luther Burden Over 10.5 1st-Quarter Receiving Yards (-114) at FanDuel Sportsbook
-
Colston Loveland Over 52.5 Receiving Yards (-113) at FanDuel Sportsbook
Luther Burden (Chicago Bears – WR)
Luther Burden is an electrifying, highly efficient player. Among 65 wide receivers with at least 150 routes this season, Burden ranks tied for ninth in targets per route run (0.27 TPRR), 15th in yards per target (9.77), 31st in yards per reception (13.02) and tied for seventh in yards per route run (2.68 Y/RR).
Advertisement
Burden has only a 59.3% snap share and a 65.0% route participation rate, though. His limited playing time has capped his production, despite elite efficiency. Burden has averaged 5.3 receptions per game and 68.4 receiving yards per game.
A deeper dive into Burden’s production is interesting. The wideout’s production is heavily front-loaded to the beginning of games, a point Josh Norris, Hayden Winks and Matt Harmon noted on their Yahoo! podcast earlier this week.
Burden has recorded 56 targets, 42 receptions and 547 receiving yards this season. He’s tallied 19 targets, 17 receptions and 245 receiving yards in the first quarter. Thus, Burden has 33.9% of his targets, 40.5% of his receptions and 44.8% of his receiving yards in the first quarter.
The dynamic wide receiver has cleared 10.5 receiving yards in the first quarter in six of eight contests this year. Moreover, Burden has done so in four of Williams’ five starts at quarterback this season, averaging 32.4 receiving yards per first quarter with a median of 23 in those contests.
Colston Loveland has averaged 66.3 receiving yards per game in his last three contests.
Colston Loveland (Chicago Bears – TE)
Burden should get a lot of his production early, but Chicago’s passing attack should have more meat on the bone. First, the Buccaneers have a pass-funnel defense. Tampa Bay has faced the fourth-highest pass rate over expected (3.1% PROE) this year. Excluding last week’s rainy game against the Falcons bumps the PROE they’ve faced to 5.7%.
Advertisement
Second, Williams has averaged 253.4 passing yards per game. Colston Loveland had only four targets, one reception and three receiving yards in Williams’ first two starts of the year. The second-year tight end has righted the ship since Williams returned in Week 6.
In three games since Williams returned from injury, Loveland has an 87.6% snap share, 74.1% route participation rate, 26.2% target share, 0.31 TPRR, 27.0% first-read rate, 25.1% air yard share, 6.7 receptions per game, 66.3 receiving yards per game, 7.37 yards per target, 9.95 yards per reception and 2.31 Y/RR. Loveland rattled off 65, 69 and 65 receiving yards in those three games.
Loveland should stay hot against a zone- and blitz-heavy defense. The Buccaneers rank third in zone rate (84.4%) and fourth in blitz rate (41.0%) this year. In Loveland’s last three games, he has 0.29 TPRR and 2.77 Y/RR on 62 routes against zone and 0.40 TPRR and 2.90 Y/RR on 30 routes against the blitz.
Loveland should clear 52.5 receiving yards for the fourth consecutive game on Sunday Night Football.
Advertisement
This article was originally published on Forbes.com
Disclaimer : This story is auto aggregated by a computer programme and has not been created or edited by DOWNTHENEWS. Publisher: Sports.yahoo.com
