Jaguars and Commanders backers were rewarded appropriately in Week 8.
On Wednesday, the Colts began their fire sale by trading their longest-tenured player, Quenton Nelson, and the betting market reacted correctly, moving the spread to double digits after hovering near a touchdown previously.
The Bengals followed it up by eking out an overtime victory while the Cowboys embarrassed themselves in a crushing loss.
We head to Week 9 of the NFL season with two double-digit favorites to back for your less aggressive players and some others to target as well.
Week 9 NFL Survivor picks
Jaguars (-10.5, Kalshi) over Ravens
It’s a disaster in Baltimore as they, at best, will be starting Joe Fagnano and at worst will have a Packers practice squad player starting on a short week.
The Ravens are looking squarely down the barrel at a blowout spot and their defense hasn’t been great this year ranking 14th in DVOA on defense, which is actually a step up from where it was the week prior.
Baltimore’s defense was rated No. 22 in defensive DVOA coming into last week before it allowed 35 points to the Bills.
Betting on the NFL?
Even if the Ravens ride Derrick Henry into the ground with 40 carries, I don’t see a world where the Jaguars lose.
They are a valuable team to keep around for later in the season if you’re into that sort of thing.
My model doesn’t account for the Ravens injuries making them my top play.
Cowboys (-5.5, bet365) over Colts
It’s a tough endeavor to sit here and say that Brian Schottenheimer is worth your entry this late in the game after you’ve survived so much (pun intended).
But Dallas is supposedly trying to win games and the Colts look like they are about to quit on themselves, ownership, and the front office.
The nail in the coffin that would make this the top play of the week is if the Colts trade Jonathan Taylor. The Cowboys will rightfully become more than a touchdown favorite in that scenario.
Considering how the Cowboys are playing you won’t find a better time to use them. Dak Prescott should be able to air it out with a loaded receiver group.
NFL Week 9 model picks
| # | Team | Week 9 game | Survivor score | Next best use |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Seahawks | vs. Cardinals (-11.0) | 79.2 | Week 15 at Eagles — 71.3% (No. 2) |
| 2 | 49ers | vs. Raiders (-10.0) | 77.3 | Week 18 at Cardinals — 72.0% (No. 7) |
| 3 | Jaguars | at Ravens (-10.0) | 76.5 | Week 12 vs. Titans — 85.9% (No. 1) |
| 4 | Chiefs | vs. Jets (-9.5) | 75.7 | Week 11 vs. Cardinals — 75.5% (No. 3) |
| 5 | Lions | at Dolphins (-7.0) | 70.3 | Week 14 vs. Titans — 76.4% (No. 1) |
| 6 | Rams | at Commanders (-6.0) | 67.3 | Week 10 at Cardinals — 73.2% (No. 2) |
| 7 | Bears | vs. Buccaneers (-6.0) | 67.0 | Week 14 at Dolphins — 72.8% (No. 2) |
| 8 | Cowboys | at Colts (-6.0) | 66.8 | Week 11 vs. Titans — 77.9% (No. 2) |
| 9 | Texans | at Chargers (-5.0) | 64.8 | Week 18 vs. Titans — 81.9% (No. 1) |
| 10 | Bills | at Vikings (-3.5) | 59.7 | Week 11 vs. Dolphins — 79.0% (No. 1) |
| 11 | Giants | at Eagles (-3.5) | 59.2 | Week 18 vs. Eagles — 61.4% (No. 9) |
| 12 | Patriots | vs. Packers (-3.0) | 58.7 | Week 18 vs. Dolphins — 75.6% (No. 2) |
| 13 | Broncos | at Panthers (-3.0) | 58.6 | Week 13 vs. Dolphins — 77.6% (No. 1) |
| 14 | Bengals | vs. Falcons (-3.0) | 58.1 | Week 18 vs. Browns — 72.5% (No. 6) |
| 15 | Saints | vs. Browns (-2.0) | 55.7 | Week 16 vs. Cardinals — 60.8% (No. 8) |
| 16 | Browns | at Saints (+2.0) | 44.3 | Week 12 vs. Raiders — 54.7% (No. 7) |
| 17 | Falcons | vs. Bengals (+3.0) | 41.9 | Week 17 vs. Saints — 58.1% (No. 12) |
| 18 | Panthers | vs. Broncos (+3.0) | 41.4 | Week 14 vs. Saints — 56.0% (No. 8) |
| 19 | Packers | at Patriots (+3.0) | 41.3 | Week 15 vs. Dolphins — 72.5% (No. 1) |
| 20 | Eagles | vs. Giants (+3.5) | 40.8 | Week 14 vs. Colts — 51.4% (No. 15) |
| 21 | Vikings | vs. Bills (+3.5) | 40.3 | Week 17 at Jets — 58.8% (No. 11) |
| 22 | Chargers | vs. Texans (+5.0) | 35.2 | Week 11 vs. Jets — 63.4% (No. 9) |
| 23 | Colts | vs. Cowboys (+6.0) | 33.2 | Week 10 vs. Dolphins — 62.8% (No. 7) |
| 24 | Buccaneers | at Bears (+6.0) | 33.0 | Week 15 vs. Saints — 55.6% (No. 10) |
| 25 | Commanders | vs. Rams (+6.0) | 32.7 | Week 13 at Titans — 61.7% (No. 4) |
| 26 | Dolphins | vs. Lions (+7.0) | 29.7 | Week 12 vs. Jets — 47.0% (No. 22) |
| 27 | Jets | at Chiefs (+9.5) | 24.3 | Week 12 at Dolphins — 53.0% (No. 11) |
| 28 | Ravens | vs. Jaguars (+10.0) | 23.5 | Week 16 vs. Browns — 61.1% (No. 6) |
| 29 | Raiders | at 49ers (+10.0) | 22.7 | Week 16 vs. Titans — 60.9% (No. 7) |
| 30 | Cardinals | at Seahawks (+11.0) | 20.8 | Week 15 vs. Jets — 52.1% (No. 15) |
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
Disclaimer : This story is auto aggregated by a computer programme and has not been created or edited by DOWNTHENEWS. Publisher: nypost.com
