No rules: Where could the next war erupt?

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The war launched by the United States and Israel against Iran may have paused, but it is far from over. Its consequences, however, are already being felt, not just across the Middle East, but globally.

Iran’s desperate confrontation with two nuclear powers which have a vast network of allies and client states represents a move toward the erosion of the remnants of a unipolar international system. Tehran’s resistance is accelerating the relentless, albeit gradual, shift toward multipolarity. 

It’s often said that it is easier to destroy than to build and in that sense, US President Donald Trump has played an unintended but pivotal role. By initiating military action against Iran, he has helped weaken the very system the United States spent decades constructing. The expectation in Washington was different. After perceived successes in Venezuela, and encouraged by regional partners, the White House appeared to assume Iran would collapse quickly under pressure.

The logic, crude but clear, seemed to be this: overwhelming military superiority would guarantee a swift victory. The United States had the aircraft carriers and the air bases, while Iran, by contrast, was seen as isolated and vulnerable.

Well, that assumption proved flawed.

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