‘Not landing many blows’: New polling to heap pressure on Miles’ leadership

Fewer than a quarter of voters in must-win Queensland seats think Steven Miles is doing a good job as state opposition leader, while Premier David Crisafulli has a net positive rating even among Labor and One Nation voters.

New exclusive polling for this masthead on leader performance is likely to heap further pressure on Miles’ leadership, as wider reports reveal shadow ministers leak against him and as a deadline for the party to settle on an electable leader for 2028 approaches.

The latest regular two-month Resolve Political Monitor also shows One Nation’s support at a state level has steadied within striking distance of a lagging Labor, behind a still-favoured Crisafulli LNP.

This month marks two years since Crisafulli’s party swept to power for the first time in more than a decade, with the milestone looming for both leaders as a turning point towards the 2028 ballot.

Primary vote support among the three top parties remained relatively steady among surveyed voters across the latest snapshot, with the LNP ahead on 32 per cent, Labor on 24 per cent, and One Nation on 21 per cent.

Small lifts for the Greens (one percentage point, to 11 per cent) and independents (one percentage point, to 7 per cent) have driven non-major parties to 44 per cent of primary vote support.

Miles’ net likeability remained the same at -6, as Crisafulli’s lifted from +16 to +20. Crisafulli’s support as preferred premier remained at 41 per cent, with Miles’ lifting two points to 24 per cent.

The results come from two waves of polling conducted with registered voters from September 1 to 5, and October 6 to 10, for a total sample size of 868 and margin for error of 3 per cent.

But additional questions asked of 434 voters in the October portion of the survey tell a deeper story about the difficulties faced by Miles to make in-roads against the popular government.

Among all voters, 30 per cent said the Labor leader had done a good job in recent weeks. Forty-four per cent said his performance was poor, while 25 per cent were undecided.

Almost 40 per cent of Labor voters didn’t describe Miles’ performance as good; 15 per cent said he was doing a poor job, while 24 per cent were undecided.

Beyond these, Miles’ only other slim net positive ratings were among uncommitted voters (+1) and Greens voters (+4), who gave Crisafulli his only net negative rating (-4).

In marginal seats, Miles’ net performance was notably worse than among the wider public, with a performance rating of -25. Just 24 per cent said he was doing a good job, compared with Crisafulli’s 45 per cent.

One Nation voters handed Crisafulli a net-positive rating of two, and Miles a net-negative rating of 55.

Senior Labor figures have been privately airing grievances about Miles’ leadership for some time, though none have publicly moved against him.

Speaking to this masthead on the condition of anonymity, one senior party room source previously said Labor needed to settle on an electable leader before Christmas.

With further publicly aired – but anonymous – criticisms of a lack of new direction and concerns about a clear path for a replacement in the media this month, Miles is not facing an imminent threat.

On Monday Miles told reporters at Parliament House he was “absolutely” confident he would still head the party when the holiday season came around. “I’m not going anywhere,” he said.

The polling was most positive for premier Crisafulli, who had a net performance rating of +23 among all voters. It was +15 in marginal seats.

Among Labor and One Nation voters, 40 per cent said he was doing a good job. He had a slim net positive performance rating among both groups.

Resolve director Jim Reed said overall the vote position had been relatively stable across the year outside the slow gains of One Nation.

“Crisafulli still achieves quite healthy personal ratings, so there’s no sign the electorate have tired of him during his first term,” Reed said.

“Miles now has negative net likeability and performance ratings, which tells us he’s not landing many blows.”

Across the two-month polling period, the government has continued to face pressure over its management of the state’s Child Safety system and was hit with the state’s first credit rating downgrade in almost two decades.

Crisafulli will give three major speeches next week set to serve as a recap of the government’s two years in power, and platform for at least one new “significant” policy announcement.

Labor’s primary vote support sits lower than it did in 2012, when it was reduced to just seven seats. The LNP’s is about 10 percentage points lower than its election result of 42 per cent.

While scrutiny of One Nation’s policies and party organisation has increased with its ascendance in polling statewide this year, this is yet to translate into an explicit focus on Queensland state politics.

State-level support for One Nation in Hanson’s home state had briefly passed the 22.6 per cent result achieved at her breakthrough 1998 Queensland election, which took the party from zero to 11 seats.

The party has no sitting MPs, despite its sparingly updated state branch website still listing Stephen Andrew as the member for Mirani. Andrew was dumped from the party by Hanson before the 2024 election.

The next state election will be held in late October 2028. While Crisafulli has repeatedly reiterated his pledge to return optional preferential voting, the change is yet to be enacted.

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