NRL’s $5 billion TV windfall will put more strain on Australian rugby

The Junior Wallabies began their world championship campaign with a 90-22 win against Spain in Georgia on Sunday morning (AEST).

They look like a powerful and skilful side, well equipped to take on France in the crucial pool game on July 7.

But the longer-term challenge will be keeping their best players in the code once the NRL’s enormous new broadcast deal, reported to be worth $5 billion, comes into being.

Junior Wallabies No.10 Finn Mackay and No.12 Treyvon Pritchard were very slick, challenging the line with their running games. Neither overplayed their hand in a disciplined performance as the Wallabies forwards showed their power.

Mackay, Pritchard and others will be part of a generation of players coming into their own just as the NRL’s spending power increases from 2028 onwards.

Australian rugby has a massive challenge on its hands because there will be no home World Cup or British and Irish Lions series to dangle as a carrot to keep them in the game.

The newly announced Anzac Day Bledisloe Tests in Brisbane in 2027, 2029 and 2031 will have appeal for players, but that might not be enough to keep the NRL wolves from the door.

Meanwhile, France-based prop Lehopa Leota copped a yellow card for the Junior Wallabies, but otherwise, he left a positive impression. He can certainly move for a big man – his first involvement as a half-time replacement was a strong carry.

Why all roads lead to Japan

The exit of South Africa and Argentina from Super Rugby has effectively killed the great rugby tradition of touring for many Australian players.

They are sold the idea of being part of an international sport, but those opportunities are now only available to those picked for the Wallabies.

There are also a couple of Australia A games lined up this year in the United States, but the old Super Rugby adventures to Cape Town and Durban are no more.

With Perth and PNG to join the NRL in the coming years, Super Rugby no longer offers something markedly different to players, and the financial gap between the codes will grow from 2028 onwards.

Super Rugby needs an international component. It is unlikely to be South Africa.

Japan looks like a much more realistic option, particularly as there is an appetite among that nation’s Rugby League One (union, not league) powerbrokers to set up post-season fixtures against Australian and New Zealand Super Rugby teams.

The format, at least initially, could see the top two teams in Japan host the best Australian team and top New Zealand outfit in Super Rugby.

World Champions Cup is years away

The debate about the best club side in the world won’t be decided any time soon. The competition, which now has the working title of the World Champions Cup, won’t happen in 2028, as originally planned.

Crusaders chief executive Colin Mansbridge, one of the competition’s biggest champions, told this masthead recently that scheduling issues meant they couldn’t make it work for 2028, but there was “optimism” for 2029.

However, the international rugby calendar is a bit like Tetris: getting all the bits to fit together is almost impossible.

The World Champions Cup format remains the same, with seven teams from Super Rugby Pacific set to take part, but whether it gets off the ground remains to be seen.

It would be deeply frustrating for the Super Rugby teams if it can’t be accommodated, but Japan offers an alternative.

Progress has not been linear for Japanese rugby, but their under-20s team was locked at 21-21 at half-time against New Zealand under-20s over the weekend before the Kiwis kicked away to win 38-21.

Meanwhile, Eddie Jones might have unearthed a future star in No.10 Ryunosuke Ito, who was outstanding as his Japan XV side – featuring former Junior Wallaby Dylan Riley – pushed the Maori All Blacks all the way in a 38-31 loss in Nagoya.

Dupont on track for Australia

Superstar Antoine Dupont won another French title for Toulouse on Saturday, but more importantly for the Wallabies was that he appeared to get through the final against Montpellier unscathed.

That raises the likelihood of Dupont joining the French squad for the Test against the Wallabies in Brisbane, which would be a major win for Rugby Australia.

Dupont has not been part of a southern hemisphere tour since 2017, and the strength of Les Bleus’ touring squad would give the new Nations Championship a credibility boost.

Dupont will not play against the All Blacks in Christchurch next weekend, but the French have such depth that an upset in Dave Rennie’s first Test in charge of New Zealand can’t be discounted.

They have a big, mobile pack and a set of backs who could trouble the All Blacks. New Zealanders have largely written off the French – and that’s a big mistake.

Gordon should get first crack at No.10

Carter Gordon did not have the smoothest of Super Rugby campaigns, as injuries interrupted his season.

But he played 10 games for an average of 65 minutes and did enough to suggest that he will be the Wallabies’ No.10 against Ireland in Sydney on Saturday.

Ben Donaldson also had a strong season for the Western Force, but coach Joe Schmidt showed last year how keen he was to get Gordon back into Wallabies colours, and even though the end-of-year tour was disappointing, the Reds No.10 showed some good signs.

There is a question mark hanging over Gordon’s goal kicking, but his aggressive running style and confrontational front-on defence will offer the Wallabies something different against Ireland, while Donaldson’s ability to cover No.10 and fullback makes him an excellent bench option.

Gordon and Donaldson will get their chances this year, but Gordon represents the Wallabies’ best chance to take the game to Ireland, especially as their likely No.10, Sam Prendergast, can’t escape ongoing scrutiny of his defence.