One Nation has hit a speed bump. Have we reached peak Pauline?

Have we reached peak Pauline?

One Nation’s primary vote has dipped to its lowest level since January (when it was 18 per cent) in the latest Resolve Political Monitor, while Pauline Hanson’s net likeability has also fallen from its peak in the first survey of the year.

Hanson and her party – boosted by the recruitment of former Nationals’ leader Barnaby Joyce, a strong performance in the South Australian election, and frontrunner status in the looming byelection in Sussan Ley’s old seat of Farrer – have been on the march since September 2025, when the party recorded its first double-digit primary vote in this survey.

But the global uncertainty of the past six weeks has put the focus back in the centre of the Coalition’s political wheelhouse – economic management.

The installation of Angus Taylor as opposition leader, the war in the Middle East and its knock-on effects in Australia – specifically a huge spike in fuel prices and a jump in cost-of-living pressures – has helped stabilise the Coalition’s primary vote support.

It’s just stabilising though, and now is hardly the time for Coalition supporters to start celebrating. The official opposition’s primary vote rose just one point in this latest survey, to 23 per cent, while One Nation’s primary fell by two to 22 per cent.

These movements are all within the margin of error, and the Coalition’s support is still in record-low territory. Preparing a return to government remains on a very distant horizon.

Labor’s primary vote also rose, by two points to 32 per cent, and if an election were to be held today, the Coalition – and One Nation – would be routed by Anthony Albanese’s Labor Party.

But what this survey does suggest is that support is beginning to flow back to both of the major parties, though the shifts in the numbers are small and mostly within the margin of error.

Some of that return is likely to be a flight back to the certainty that the two major political parties represent in an uncertain time.

At a time when petrol and diesel prices are reaching record highs, food prices are rising, more interest rate rises are on the way, and US President Donald Trump uses social media to threaten to erase an entire civilisation, it’s hardly surprising that the status quo offering of the two major parties is more attractive.

The fact that the primary vote for other independents also fell by two points reinforces the flight back to known parties in uncertain times.

The additional scrutiny on One Nation over its policies and positions on issues has also ramped up in recent months, both from its political opponents and in the media, and that is likely to have contributed to the dip in One Nation support.

Taylor, too, has acquitted himself well in the early months of his leadership.

There has been a five-point bounce in the proportion of people surveyed who said he was doing a good or very good job. The opposition leader’s score rose from 36 per cent to 41 per cent in just one month, while the overall number of people saying he is doing a poor job remained steady at 26 per cent, and the number of people who were undecided was down 5 per cent.

Those movements are outside the margin of error and suggest voters – who have now had a bit of time to take a look and a listen to the opposition leader – like what they have seen so far.

This survey was conducted in the same week that Albanese was overseas meeting regional leaders and shoring up Australian fuel supplies, and in a week in which Taylor launched the opposition’s tough-talking immigration policy, which was aimed squarely at winning back voters who have defected to One Nation.

At the same time, Hanson’s net likeability has fallen from its peak of plus 15 points in January to plus six points now, another move outside the margin of error, though it’s hardly a disaster.

It is too soon to say whether Australia has reached peak Pauline. One survey is not a trend.

But the Coalition, in particular, will be hoping and praying that this survey marks the beginning of a turnaround in the opposition’s electoral fortunes.

At a minimum, this survey confirms that the opposition is more competitive under Taylor than Ley, that Hanson now has a fight on her hands for centre-right voters and that Albanese is still, by some margin, in the box seat.

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