One Nation pulls out of byelection test despite surging polls

One Nation will not run a candidate in the snap byelection called for the Brisbane state seat of Stafford.

The poll in the city’s inner north, to be held on May 16, was expected to be a test of the rising support for Pauline Hanson’s party in urban areas.

One Nation had earlier indicated it would run a candidate in the byelection, with the party’s preferences likely to flow to the LNP.

The party secured just 3 per cent of the vote in 2024, but pollster Kos Samaras for RedBridge Group said its national surge in popularity would probably be reflected in the vote.

“It’s highly likely that One Nation hits the LNP and Labor’s primary doesn’t move, because Labor’s primary is largely made up of the type of constituencies that are not moving to One Nation in these parts of the country,” Samaras told this masthead last week when One Nation was still expected to field a candidate.

He said while the election would be the first window into how One Nation faired at the ballot box since becoming the largest party in Queensland, it was highly unlikely they would pull enough new voters to secure the seat.

The demographics in the electorate, university-educated professionals and public servants, typically favour Labor.

The byelection was called after MP Jimmy Sullivan died suddenly in his Brisbane unit two weeks ago.

Sullivan was elected as a member of Labor, but was kicked out of the party last year as he struggled with personal issues and allegations from the government that he was involved in a domestic violence incident.

Labor selected local lawyer Luke Richmond as its candidate, while the LNP tapped former councillor Fiona Hammond.

Hammond ran in 2024, garnering 38 per cent of first preference votes, essentially tied with Sullivan, but the preference flow from a significant Greens vote delivered Labor the easy win.

Polling from Resolve Strategic surveys published on Wednesday in Brisbane Times showed One Nation was the leading third party in Queensland, with 17 per cent of those surveyed saying they would put the party first on their ballot, up from just 8 per cent in the 2024 election.

Last month, the party transferred its burgeoning support in South Australia, picking up four seats in the 47 seat parliament.

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