Origin’s kryptonite saw the Blues adopt a Maroons state of mind

In the wash-up of Wednesday’s Origin decider, little focus has been put on just how awful Queensland were.

With 50 missed tackles and a 70 per cent completion rate, the Maroons produced the standard of a bad club team (by comparison, the Dolphins missed 36 tackles and completed 69 per cent of their sets on Saturday, and lost 66-0).

In commentary for Nine, Phil Gould said Queensland “did not handle favouritism”.

I looked up the Origin records to see if either state ever handles favouritism because I had the impression that being the red-hot tip to win an Origin match is one of the best predictors of failure.

This year, the favourites (as measured by pre-match odds, a more reliable gauge of opinion than expert tipsters) lost all three Origin matches.

Over the past 10 series, the pre-match favourites have won 12 of 30 games.

Of the 23 times New South Wales have been favourites (go figure), they have lost 13.

Queensland have been pre-match favourites seven times and won just twice. It’s a pretty conclusive case, in line with the upside-down logic of Origin: the underdogs are actually the favourites. Queensland, favoured to win games one and three, lost both.

Weirdly, they were not favourites for game two, and duly won. In Origin, league’s Opposite Day, the team most people expect to lose is the team more likely to win.

Why? Chip on the shoulder, underdog, point to prove, shove it up the critics …. These are the essential ingredients of success, as Queensland have generally shown. It’s just that every so often, such as last Wednesday, the Blues get into a Maroon state of mind.

Nawaqanitawase’s genius again on show

The Roosters put on a nice show for Daniel Tupou’s 300th NRL match on Saturday night, with everyone from the prime minister and princess of Tonga to Bob Farrugia’s 1976 under-23 premiers on hand to celebrate.

Painting the 30-metre lines with “300” was a cute touch.

When Tupou scored his first try, put into the corner by a nice Billy Smith pass, one of the most popular players in the NRL remembered to do the Jai Arrow celebration, showing that even when it was all about him, it wasn’t all about him.

Meanwhile, the early action was on the opposite wing, with Mark Nawaqanitawase showing his tricks. His duel with Josh Addo-Carr was a beaut.

Nawaqanitawase’s first flick pass to find Rob Toia was a fluke – I was sitting 10 metres away, and it was a pure Hail Mary, Mark and John to find Toia unmarked. But his second magical pass, a few minutes later, which Toia fumbled and didn’t result in a try, was intentional, uncannily skilful, a mark of genius. He is some player.

Either way, it shows what a good deal the Roosters got when they acquired Nawaqanitawase to replace Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii.

One is currently catching Daly Cherry-Evans kicks, while the other is catching a cold. Both will end up back in the NRL.

Lessons must be taken from Luai situation

If the league truly wants to put the fans first, the Jarome Luai-Wests Tigers break-up should finally put to rest the farce of players signing contracts two seasons ahead of time.

Having an 18-month lame duck period at his current club, as Luai had the moment the PNG Chiefs announced his signing for 2028, has compromised two seasons for the Tigers and their fans.

No contract for 2028 should be registered while the 2026 season is still running. By moving on from Luai in 2027, the Tigers are throwing the spotlight onto a systemic flaw that their supporters don’t deserve to have forced upon them.

What to make of Sharks’ feeding frenzy

Wow. Just wow. You would always favour a Shark in a fight against a Dolphin, but 66-0?

Perfection strikes as often as lightning, and Cronulla might never put together another performance like that, but they can enjoy the buzz while it lasts.

As for the Dolphins, they might have been missing four of their super-backline, but no team has ever won a premiership after suffering a defeat like that during their season.

Fozball is wobbling as bad habits return

Fozball RIP? Maybe, maybe not, but for now Manly have fallen back into the habit of not being able to run out a full 80-minute game, which was a characteristic of the Anthony Siebold era.

If the run-in to the finals commences after Origin, the Cowboys’ win at Brookvale shows a team on a September trajectory, with Tom Dearden soon to return.

The top eight, at the end of this bellwether round, might just be settled.