First-round leader bets are always a little chaotic, but that’s also where the value can live.
This week’s PGA Championship at Aronimink gives bettors a loaded board with plenty of star power, but the FRL market is less about picking the eventual winner and more about finding the right mix of early scoring upside and one-round volatility.
Here are two players worth targeting to start fast on Thursday.
Aberg has been frustrating at times this year, but there’s no doubt he’s been consistently excellent on Thursday.
In eight starts, Aberg is averaging a first-round score of 69.25, which is well above the Tour average.
While his backers have been exasperated by his lack of victories, it’s his late-round struggles, including a back-breaking final round 76 during The Players Championship, that have done him in.
Aberg is quietly playing some of the best golf of his young career, coming into the tournament, finishing in the top 10 in five of his last six starts.
The flashy fan favorite is worth a look as a first-round leader long shot at Aronimink.
Fowler is not the safest option on the board, but this market rewards volatility, and he still has the kind of scoring upside that can pop over 18 holes.
He also enters with some recent momentum after a strong showing at the Truist Championship, giving bettors a reason to buy into the form.
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Fowler has been one of the top Thursday golfers this season, averaging a first-round score of 68.22, which trails only Scottie Scheffler, Jake Knapp, Jordan Smith, and Rory McIlroy among golfers with at least five starts on the Tour this year.
Going out early alongside Aberg and Bryson DeChambeau, Fowler should have a chance to post a number before the board fully takes shape.
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Dylan Svoboda is a versatile writer and analyst across many sports. He’s particularly knowledgeable about the big three — MLB, the NFL and the NBA.
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