Prediction: Will Dell Hit $500 This Year?

Quick Read

• Dell earns a BUY rating with a $490 price target and 17% upside, with the bull case reaching $510 if AI server execution holds.

• A $1.4 billion Microsoft deal reignited Dell’s rally after Q1 AI server revenue surged 757% to $16 billion.

• Gross margins compressed from 21% to 18% as the AI mix surged, with the bear case landing at $372 if demand turns lumpy.

• Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and Dell Technologies didn’t make the cut. Grab the names FREE today.

Dell Technologies (NYSE:DELL) has staged one of the most dramatic comebacks of the AI cycle, with shares up 235.68% year to date through June 17. The question now is whether the rally has further to run, or whether the easy money is already in the rearview.

Our 24/7 Wall St. price target for Dell points to $489.60 over the next 12 months, which falls just shy of the psychologically important $500 mark but still implies meaningful upside.

24/7 Wall St. Price Target Summary

Our base case sits below $500, but the bull case in our model reaches $510.57, meaning a $500 print this year is very much in play if execution holds.

From $114 to $419 in One Year

Dell has gained 267.31% over the trailing 12 months and another 76.16% in the past month alone.

The catalyst was Q1 FY27 earnings on May 28, 2026, when revenue hit $43.84 billion, up 87.5% year over year, and non-GAAP EPS came in at $4.86, beating consensus by 63.99%. AI-optimized server revenue alone reached $16.13 billion, a 757% surge, and Dell booked $24.4 billion in AI orders in the quarter.

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Reddit sentiment shifted sharply bullish after the report, with one widely shared post noting “Dell +40% after-hours after revenue surged 88% YoY to $43.8B”. A subsequent $1.4 billion Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) deal disclosed June 16 reignited the bid.

The Case for $500+

Dell raised FY27 revenue guidance to $165 billion to $169 billion, with non-GAAP EPS guided to $17.90 at the midpoint, up 74%. AI server revenue is expected to hit $60 billion, up 144%.

Jim Cramer flagged the shift on June 1, noting Dell was selling for only eight times forward earnings before its run. Of 26 covering analysts, 18 rate Dell Buy or Strong Buy, with a consensus target of $483.83. If Dell holds a 27x multiple on FY27 EPS, the bull-case path to $510.57 looks credible.

What Could Go Wrong

Gross margin compressed to 17.8% from 21.1% as the AI mix surged, and stockholders’ equity remains negative at -$2.47 billion. Silver Lake entities were net sellers between $371 and $406 in early June, which is worth watching.

Bulls would counter that ISG operating margin actually expanded to 10.5% from 9.7%, and CFO Yvonne McGill stated “ISG margins will expand throughout the year.” Our bear case lands at $372.39 if AI demand proves lumpy and hyperscaler concentration bites.

Dell Price Prediction 2026-2030

The 24/7 Wall St. price target of $489.60 supports a buy recommendation with 90% confidence. The tipping factor is the $43 billion AI backlog entering FY27 plus another $24.4 billion booked in Q1.

The bullish path strengthens if AI server margins continue expanding into the back half. The thesis weakens if Q2 FY27 shows backlog deterioration or further gross margin slippage below 17%. A $500 print this calendar year is within reach but not our base case.

These projections assume Dell continues executing on AI infrastructure, with our five-year base case landing at $686.52 by June 2031. Significant upside or downside could result from AI capex cyclicality or a step-change in sovereign AI deployment.

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