We’re officially in the middle of a schneid. Rice, which was getting 16.5 points against North Texas, was down 17-14 midway through the third quarter but fell apart down the stretch in Denton, sending us to our third loss in as many weeks. Now standing at 5-6 on the campaign, we’ll turn to Purdue to get us a cover at Kinnick Stadium to get us back to .500 before we head down the stretch. But first, a history lesson.
Lord Horatio Nelson is one of Britain’s greatest heroes.
The mastermind of England’s famous victory over the combined French and Spanish Fleet at the Battle of Trafalgar (where he was mortally wounded), he achieved success by challenging the status quo of naval warfare by adopting an aggressive strategy rather than relying on the traditional, conservative tactics that often led to stalemates and the two combatants sailing back to port having gained nothing while losing plenty.
It took years for Lord Nelson to convince those in charge of His Majesty’s Navy that his way was the right one, but after years, they finally gave in, and boy were they happy they did.
Had the Admiralty held firm and forced Nelson to fight not to lose, they probably would be talking French in London right now.
Kirk Ferentz’s Iowa Hawkeyes could use a Lord Nelson right about now.
There may not be a better coach on the planet at making his teams hard to beat, but Ferentz’s Hawkeyes have struggled for essentially his entire 28-year tenure to find the right balance between being responsible and playing to win. They’ll grind you into dust and batter you into submission, but Iowa rarely has been able to attack its way to victory over the last three decades.
There has been plenty of pressure on Ferentz to bring in an aggressive offensive coordinator and allow him to coach without restraint, but it just may not be in the 71-year-old’s DNA.
Tim Lester was supposed to be the offensive coordinator who brought Iowa’s offense into the 21st century, but it’s been more of the same.
Iowa ranks 77th in points per game (24.4), 66th in yards per play (5.5) and 99th in yards per pass (6.7).
On one hand, it is admirable that Ferentz is so committed to his philosophy, but that stubbornness has also probably cost Iowa some hardware over the years. The Hawkeyes haven’t won a Big Ten title since 2002, and they’ve gone 86 games without passing for 300 yards.
In fact, quarterback Hank Brown has only surpassed the 200-yard mark twice this season.
Of course, another hallmark of Ferentz’s tenure in Iowa City has been the consistently dominant defenses led by Phil Parker. That means the Hawkeyes don’t need crooked numbers from their offense to win games.
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But the equation changes when you factor in the spread. Iowa is 77-17 (81 percent) straight up as a home favorite since 2010, but it is just 45-47-2 (47.8 percent) ATS in that span. Those numbers line up with what we’ve seen from Iowa for decades. You can trust the Hawkeyes to get the job done and beat inferior opponents, but just don’t expect them to do it in style.
Purdue may not seem like a daunting opponent. They’re certainly not up to par with the French and Spanish Fleet, but don’t underestimate the Boilermakers when they have the ball. This attack put up 38 points and 8.3 yards per play against UCLA, one of the best defenses in the country, and scored 24 or more points in all but two of their games. They can hold their own.
The Boilermakers’ defense is another story. It is bad. But the Iowa offense is not really a threat to bombard anybody. The Hawkeyes live in first gear, which makes it really difficult for them to cover big spreads. Nelson wouldn’t be a fan.
Take the 17.5 points with the Boilermakers on Saturday.
The Play: Purdue +17.5 (-110, DraftKings)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
Disclaimer : This story is auto aggregated by a computer programme and has not been created or edited by DOWNTHENEWS. Publisher: nypost.com
