Qld’s spine is destined for all-time greatness. This is the only way to beat them

It’s been a long time since Queensland were such red-hot favourites in an Origin decider like they are tonight.

Everyone simply expects them to win at Suncorp. So all the pressure is on the Maroons.

But the Queensland playmakers – the spine of Kalyn Ponga, Cameron Munster, Sam Walker and Harry Grant – already look like they’ve played 20 games together.

Harry and Cameron obviously have such an innate understanding of each other’s game from playing together at Melbourne. But Sam Walker has jumped into this series and played his best footy from the moment he walked into the Origin arena – not many playmakers can lay claim to that.

Frankly, this Maroons spine scares me. All series, they have complemented and understood each other so well and been significantly more creative than their NSW counterparts.

Throughout Queensland’s record run of eight straight Origin series wins, Billy Slater, Johnathan Thurston, Darren Lockyer, Cooper Cronk and Cameron Smith called the shots and each finished as all-time Origin greats. In years to come, are we going to be talking about this current Maroons spine in similar fashion?

For the Blues sake, I hope not. But honestly, I don’t think NSW can stop them completely on Wednesday night.

What the Blues can, and must do, is stop Queensland’s go-forward, both from their middles and coming out of trouble. Cut down the time and space Queensland’s playmakers have enjoyed and, put simply, force Sam Walker into making more tackles.

With the ball in hand, send Hudson Young at him running off Mitchell Moses – it’s time for Hudson to deliver on that threat on the Blues left edge.

I would even look at splitting our starting lock – whether that’s Isaah Yeo or a late change for Cameron Murray – from the middle of the field, and really encourage him to roam wider in search of Walker as well. Take turns going after him as ball-runners, because for a playmaker of Sam’s size, 18 tackles in Origin I and 13 tackles in Origin II just isn’t enough.

NSW need to attack Walker without the ball as well, and by that I mean using a rushing line speed to get up in his face as soon as the ball goes near him. Sam will back himself on every play. So cutting down his time raises the prospect of a rushed pass or a gamble that backfires.

Nathan Cleary is a much bigger body and more robust defender. But Queensland successfully drew him into defensive mistakes he typically doesn’t make in Melbourne through repetition – by asking him to consistently make the right call, every time, with bodies in motion and advantages at the ruck.

Harry Grant was the key to all of this, and along with Walker, he is the Queenslander that NSW need to work over in defence. Harry needs to make a minimum of 50 tackles.

His second-half tackle counts – 30 in game one, only 10 in game two – reflects just how much work he takes on depending on how possession flows.

Along with upping Grant’s workload, NSW need to really tighten up their marker defence and ruck control. Harry ran riot at the MCG when that got away from the Blues, busting down the Blues’ right-edge twice from dummy-half in the second half with line breaks that led to Queensland points.

The Blues blueprint: Time to get creative

And as I’ve argued a few times now, the key to NSW reclaiming the ruck ascendancy comes from their own attack.

It’s a huge game for several players, in particular James Tedesco, who is 33, and Mitchell Moses, 31. Put simply they need to perform or the spotlight on their positions will be intense.

The Blues’ playmakers need to be more creative with the ball when coming out of their own end. But the biggest area to improve is with their support play around the ruck when their big forwards are making tough carries.

Having extra bodies around the ball keeps the defence in two minds, limits how many tacklers Queensland can get into each ruck and creates the opportunities for quick play-the-balls and offloads. Payne Haas is the key to this.

He’s the best front-rower on the field and can truly run amok with the right support around him – that’s Tedesco sniffing around on his inside and keeping the marker close to the play-the-ball and the Blues halves pushing up on his outside to keep the defence honest.

As for the ball movement coming out of trouble, it’s just how you have to play in 2026. The common denominator in Manly, Newcastle and the Dolphins – the three biggest improvers in the NRL – is their willingness to shift wide early in the tackle count to create momentum.

The one thing to bear in mind with this though is the conditions, because last Saturday night’s Broncos-Sharks game at Suncorp Stadium surprised me. The surface was quite slippery, players regularly lost their footing and it led to a lot of ruck and play-the-ball errors.

The forecast is for a clear night, but a slippery surface favours the Blues’ more conservative attack, as well as the long kicking game of Moses.

Selwyn Cobbo has played two career-best games this series and if he backs up again in the decider, he’s a good shout to win the Wally Lewis Medal as player of the series. I wouldn’t be kicking anywhere near him; his kick returns have been incredible all series. All my long and crossfield kicks would be down to Jojo Fifita on the opposite flank.

Walker’s short kicking game is the best in rugby league right now, but NSW have picked Mark Nawaqanitawase and Jack Bostock for their height and aerial abilities – they should be kicking for their tall timber at every opportunity.

The big concern for me is that this is Queensland’s strongest team of the series. The return of Pat Carrigan and Jeremiah Nanai to a winning side is ominous.

Liam Martin brings aggression back in for NSW and he’ll put a bullseye on Munster, but the big unknown for the Blues is how Laurie Daley uses his bench. He can’t afford to get his rotations wrong again, especially with Blayke Brailey and Haumole Olakau’atu because if one of those X-factor changes is mistimed, like we saw at the MCG, then it can throw all the plans out.

I’d love to see Murray start and use his leg speed to match the Maroons early. But whoever is out there in the first 20 minutes, they hold the key for NSW.

An early try or two in those opening exchanges would swing the narrative immediately. All the pressure is suddenly on Queensland, and we all know what pressure can do in the Origin arena.

Joey’s tip: NSW by two
First try-scorer: Jack Bostock
Man of the match: Payne Haas