Republicans lose Congress, but Trumpism is far from finished

The Republicans have suffered a crushing defeat in the US midterm elections, and the Democrats have every reason to celebrate, but the real significance of the result lies less in the number of seats changing hands than in what it reveals about the direction of American politics.

The warning signs were there long before polling day, given almost two years after Donald Trump’s return to the White House many Americans have seen little improvement in their daily lives. Trade wars have unsettled the economy, while the adventure in Iran has reinforced the feeling that Washington is leading the country towards another costly and unnecessary confrontation. Democrats exploited these anxieties effectively, while Trump’s coalition appeared increasingly divided and considerably less eager to defend its president than it was in 2024.

The uncertainty before the vote concerned the scale of the Republican defeat. Would the party lose the House of Representatives but cling on to the Senate, and could it preserve its advantage among state governors? In the event, the worst outcome materialized as Democrats won both chambers of Congress and, for the first time since 2010, emerged with more governorships than their rivals.

It would be easy to overstate the immediate consequences because American politics has always been capable of dramatic reversals. Even Texas, long considered a Republican fortress, has been experiencing demographic and political changes for years and nor will a Democratic Congress necessarily transform the way Trump governs. He relied heavily on executive orders when Republicans controlled Capitol Hill and is unlikely to abandon that habit now.