Revealed: Cost of new rapid bus routes across Sydney detailed in secret forecasts

The cost of 35 new rapid bus routes in Sydney is estimated in confidential modelling by the state’s transport department to be about $5.8 billion, described as a fraction of the bill for building metro train lines.

The forecast cost of buying new buses, infrastructure upgrades and other equipment is on top of an estimated ongoing bill of $760 million to operate the 35 rapid routes, if delivered, each year.

Despite the modelling three years ago and an 18-month review of the bus network, the Minns government is yet to unveil plans for a single rapid bus link.

John Lee, who chaired a NSW government-commissioned bus industry taskforce, said it had urged the state in early 2024 to develop four rapid bus routes – along Parramatta, Victoria and Bondi roads and to Western Sydney Airport – within four years.

“Commuters on those three major city routes would be frustrated that nothing has happened, nearly three years after the recommendations were made,” he said, adding that rapid bus routes were a fraction of the cost of new metro lines.

“When the cost of capital is so high, you can’t be building more metro. It doesn’t suit the economic times. So you go to what is affordable, and what is affordable is bus, bus and more bus – it’s cheaper, it’s more effective and has a bigger impact.”

The $514 million northern beaches B-Line route from Wynyard to Mona Vale is the only rapid bus service to have been introduced over the past decade.

The modelling by Transport for NSW and consultants shows five of the most expensive rapid bus routes would be in the outer west, including $656 million for a link from Western Sydney Airport to Mount Druitt, $490 million for the new airport to Blacktown and $354 million for Camden to Liverpool.

In the east, a rapid route from Sutherland to Pyrmont is estimated to cost $258 million, while La Perouse to Randwick via Anzac Parade is put at $201 million.

The bus industry taskforce proposed in 2023 that 40 rapid bus routes be delivered in Sydney over four decades – or one per year – describing them as a “top-tier bus product” similar to light rail with “turn up and go services”.

The review described the 27-kilometre northern beaches B-Line as an example of the “significant benefits of investing” in rapid bus routes. It cited faster journey times, a substantial increase in patronage and commuters switching from cars to B-Line buses.

Lee said rapid bus routes were four times cheaper than light rail lines, while they were more flexible and avoided major community disruptions like those which occurred in the Sydney CBD and elsewhere during construction of the L2 and L3 lines.

The government also set aside about $24 million over two years in 2024 for a medium-term bus plan, which has yet to be released. The plan was one of the bus industry taskforce’s recommendations.

Coalition transport spokesperson Natalie Ward questioned the outcomes for commuters from the government’s bus taskforce, saying investment needed to match the rhetoric.

“Discussion papers do not meet the needs of Sydney commuters. This is another plan sitting in the top drawer of the Minns government,” she said. “Little has been achieved to improve the lives of commuters.”

Transport Minister John Graham said the government was making a record investment in bus services after it became the “forgotten mode under the former Liberal government”.

“We will continue to consider the options presented in the medium-term bus plan as we continue boosting services in high-demand priority areas,” he said.

Inner West Council is pressing the government for a rapid bus route or light rail service along Parramatta Road between Burwood and the CBD.

Labor mayor Darcy Byrne said it was “decision time” for Transport for NSW on improved links along Parramatta Road because tens of thousands of new homes were planned for the corridor.

“There’s been decades-long inertia about what transport solutions should be implemented in Parramatta Road,” he said. “The difference now is that the homes are coming, and the transport decision has to be made. We’re agnostic about whether that is light rail or rapid buses.”

The confidential modelling puts the cost of a rapid bus route along Parramatta Road between the CBD and Burwood at $89 million.

Two years ago, Transport for NSW canvassed a widening of Parramatta Road between Petersham and Croydon to clear the way for a rapid transit route from Burwood to the CBD. Graham, who was then roads minister, ruled out the proposal after the plans showed almost 200 homes and businesses were at risk of being demolished or having land reclaimed.

Transport for NSW said rapid bus corridors could require substantial investment in fleet, depots, road upgrades, bus-priority infrastructure and passenger facilities.

“The bus industry taskforce identified a range of corridors for further consideration and planning. While planning work continues, Transport for NSW is focused on delivering the broader improvements needed to support a stronger bus network,” it said.

The agency said it was finalising the medium-term bus plan – now called the NSW bus plan – which would identify investments delivering the greatest benefits, adding that “significant bus improvements” had been delivered across Sydney since the taskforce reported.

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