Saudi Arabia wants into the F-35 club. What will membership cost?

The Trump administration has approved a potential sale of F-35 fighter jets to Saudi Arabia as part of a $24.3 billion package that also includes engines, equipment, and spare parts. For Riyadh, the decision opens the prospect of a substantial improvement in its air capabilities, while allowing Washington to demonstrate its willingness to deepen relations with one of its most important Middle Eastern partners. Yet political disagreements and negotiations over the terms still stand between State Department approval and the arrival of the aircraft at Saudi air bases.

The significance of the decision extends well beyond an arms contract, as Saudi Arabia increasingly seeks to broaden its relationships with competing centers of power. Viewed in this context, Trump’s initiative can be understood as an attempt to preserve America’s position as the kingdom’s principal strategic partner and prevent further drift away from Washington. The challenge, however, is that commercial interests, the protection of sensitive technology, and commitments to Israel do not always point towards the same policy.

How Washington hopes to keep Riyadh close

Saudi Arabia values its partnership with the United States, but wants to determine for itself how far that partnership should shape its wider policies. Relations with China, cooperation with Russia, and the development of regional ties allow the kingdom to reduce its dependence on any single external partner. This does not mean Riyadh is ready to abandon US-led security arrangements, but it does make Saudi leaders less receptive to demands that Washington might once have regarded as a natural part of an alliance.

For the United States, the risk lies in the gradual erosion of its privileged position. Even if the kingdom continues to purchase American weapons, it may increasingly turn elsewhere for political support and economic opportunities. As those relationships deepen, Riyadh gets more options, while Washington has fewer opportunities to secure concessions by threatening to restrict cooperation.