Shock results go against Socceroos if they need to rely on a third place finish

Santa Clara: The importance for the Socceroos to get a result in their final group stage match against Paraguay has increased, with results in other recent matches going against Australia if they were to rely on a third-placed spot.

Australia will play at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara on Friday (12pm, AEST), knowing exactly what they need to do to make it through to the knockout stages and with their fate in their own hands. Sports analytics company Opta currently rates the Socceroos at an 84 per cent chance of making the round of 32.

It was as high as 92 per cent before the final group stages began, but some shock results in the other groups – including South Africa beating South Korea, Ecuador toppling Germany, and a draw between Japan and Sweden have shaken up what will be needed to progress as a third-placed finisher.

If the Socceroos lose to Paraguay, their likelihood of progressing will also fluctuate with just about every goal in the other games.

This is what each potential result would mean for the Socceroos’ chances of progressing to the round of 32.

Socceroos win

If Australia beat Paraguay, the Socceroos would finish on six points in Group D and in second spot. The US, already on six points, have already topped the group regardless of whether they win, lose, or draw with Turkey in the final group match (also played at 12pm, Friday AEST). That is because, for the first time at a World Cup, FIFA is using head-to-head records instead of goal difference as the primary tiebreaker for teams level on points. The US’s win over the Socceroos in Seattle means Australia can finish no higher than second.

What next: A second-place finish would have Australia play their round of 32 match in Dallas on July 4 (AEST) against the runner-up of Group G. Belgium is currently second in Group G after being held to draws in their matches against Iran and Egypt – the Europeans play New Zealand in their final match. The other match is Egypt versus Iran, and it is possible that any team in this group could finish second. The Socceroos have never met Egypt or Belgium at a major tournament, and Australia’s last match against Iran was that heartbreaking defeat in the World Cup qualifier at the Melbourne Cricket Ground in 1997.

Socceroos draw

Australia only needs a point to secure the second spot in Group D. Paraguay, like Australia, have three points at present, so both sides would finish equal on four points. The draw also would mean the head-to-head tiebreaker couldn’t split the sides, so it would go back to goal difference – and with Australia having a superior tally, the Socceroos would finish second.

What next: The same scenario as if we win – the round of 32 game in Dallas against Group G’s second-place getter.

Socceroos lose

Even with a loss, Australia cannot finish lower than third in Group D. If Turkey manages to win against the US and picks up three points, they would still sit below the Socceroos based on the head-to-head record after Australia’s 2-0 win in Vancouver in the opening round.

Australia’s progression would then depend on a series of results in various games across the other 11 groups. The tournament’s 48-team expansion means the eight best-performing third-placed sides out of the 12 groups progress to the round of 32. Would the Socceroos’ three points – after a win and two losses – be enough to get through? Quite possibly.

After the opening round of the tournament, Opta’s supercomputer ran 100,000 simulations of the remaining group stage fixtures and found that 66.7 per cent of the time, three points were enough for a team to go through.

As of June 25, that number had decreased slightly to 64.2 per cent.

How badly Paraguay defeated Australia would have an impact. The Socceroos now have a goal difference of zero – so a loss would push that into the negative.

If they were defeated by one goal, Opta says the likelihood of Australia progressing would now be 91.6 per cent. However, if they lost by two, it drops to 74.2 per cent; at three goals, it falls steeply to 37 per cent, and so on.

What next: If they scrape through in third, their opponent and venue for their round of 32 match are not as clear. As things now stand, the most likely scenario is a trip to Boston, where they would play Germany, who have clinched top place in Group E, on June 30. The other possibilities include a trip to New York (well, MetLife Stadium in New Jersey) to play the winner of Group I – most likely France – on July 1, or heading to Kansas City on July 4 to play the winner of Group K. That group is likely to be topped by either Portugal or Colombia.

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