Strange, it may sound. Things look odd for the BJP in poll-bound Uttar Pradesh.
Chief minister Yogi Adityanath is burning the midnight oil, stirring through the politically key state to secure power for a third term in the polls just four months away.
The election scheduled in early 2027 is taking place for the first time after the massive donation theft scandal at Ayodhya came to the fore. The faithful have been hurt, and no one knows how deep the wound is. The Opposition is out to exploit it to the fullest, to hit where it hurts most.
Coupled with this, the issues of price rise and unemployment, as well as student unrest; have become a cause for concern.
In the last Lok Sabha polls, the BJP had got a shock of its life with its tally sharply plunging from 62 to 33 in the state’s 80 seats. The election had witnessed the Akhilesh Yadav Samajwadi Party coming out with its best-ever performance of 37 seats.
Whatever the reasons, the word is out that the state BJP is not fully behind him and that the chief minister is facing backlash for promoting ‘thakurvad’. State BJP chief Pankaj Chaudhary is not known to be a Yogi fan.
This does not mean the end of the road for the Yogi, who looks unfazed and could come up the winner by doing what he knows best – the communal polarisation card, the vicious 80-20 game that has seen him come on the top.
Anything can happen by the time of the elections is what is being said ominously. This means there could be a slip between the cup and the lip for rival sides given the BJP’s propensity to play the communal card to a devastating effect.
Uttar Pradesh is the jewel of BJP’s Hindutva politics, and it is not for nothing that the former Gujarat CM had turned it into his karmabhumi.
There are many ifs and buts if the BJP is to repeat its dismal performance in the Lok Sabha polls, which had resulted in Narendra Modi failing to get an absolute majority for the third term. It should not be forgotten that the BJP had lost Ayodhya in the polls, much to the shock of the world’s largest party.
The Yogi is posing to be deferential to Mr Modi, knowing fully well that the PM might be facing a crisis at the national level but still has the wherewithal to turn things topsy-turvy for him.
All is not well in the organisation, as is clear from the fact that party chief Nitin Nabin, as well as some central office bearers and RSS leaders, recently held feedback sessions with regional leaders, which saw issues of ‘neglect’ by a section of leadership coming to the fore.
Reports of Amit Shah coming to Uttar Pradesh soon for tightening the nuts and bolts have also appeared. But the thing is that the scenario in the state ahead of the 2027 polls is not the one that was in 2022 or 2017.
The Brahmins, who have a traditional rivalry with the Thakurs, are not happy with Yogi, who has used his power to spread the influence of his community far and wide.
The problem for the Brahmins is that since they have aligned with the BJP for long, they have become alien to other parties. The community shifted from the Congress lock, stock and barrel after the beginning of the Ram Janmabhoomi movement in the late 80s, making the grand old party a cripple in the most crucial state.
Will the TINA (There Is No Alternative) factor help the BJP to keep a majority of Brahmins with it? The answer could be in the affirmative at the present.
The dominance of Thakurs at the police station level too has affected other communities. Akhilesh Yadav had lost power after people were fed up with the Yadav control of police stations that, according to their perception, had helped the Yadavs and the Muslims alone.
However, Yogi’s take on his governance is different: ‘We have razed mafia to dust.’ He insists that his government’s zero-tolerance policy towards crime has resulted in better facilities, economic growth, and investment in the state.
While the BJP is making every effort to come up as the winner in UP, it is not unduly worried as to whatever the outcome.
A section in the BJP believes that whatever happens in Uttar Pradesh, it is unlikely to affect the party at the national level or the Modi dispensation. This meant that an upset for Yogi is not necessarily an upset for the PM.
The BJP, especially Modi, has honed the art of managing the states to his will from the Centre; whatever the dispensation there, goes the refrain. It was the Modi brand of ‘cooperative federalism’ or whatever the detractors say.
Besides, an Opposition-ruled state helps the BJP grow there in the Lok Sabha polls, is the reasoning. Heads, I win; tails, I win.
In the last Assembly polls, there were a number of seats won by the BJP by a very lesser margin.
Yogi had pygmed all other leaders, be they Deputy CMs or ministers, to such an extent that the impression for the past decade is that Yogi alone rules. This was bound to have its fallout at a time when the Samajwadi Party is looking a serious contender for power.
In the just concluded UP Legislative Council (MLC) elections, the BJP lost the Varanasi Teachers’ constituency, a politically significant seat because Varanasi is the PM’s Lok Sabha constituency.
The outcome of the Assembly polls also depended upon the index of Opposition unity in the state. If the much-talked-about Samajwadi Party-Congress alliance takes place without much friction, the BJP will get a run for its money, as the Opposition would be raring to cause an upset.
But if the Opposition’s alliance-making falters, it could lead to an advantageous situation for the BJP, which had won a number of seats last time by a slender margin.
BSP supremo Mayawati is becoming a spent force day by day as she has become inactive to the core. In recent elections, she has played a role that supports the BJP by her inaction and helping to split the opposition vote.
With the UP polls on the cards, 2027 is going to be politically significant for the BJP.
Disclaimer : This story is auto aggregated by a computer programme and has not been created or edited by DOWNTHENEWS. Publisher: deccanchronicle.com
