Every week there is a monumental matchup in the SEC, and this weekend is no different! #21 LSU (6-3) hosts #6 Texas (7-2) in Death Valley for a game that dictates whether or not the Tigers have a playoff pulse left. LSU lost at home to Alabama 31-13, while Texas is on a three-game winning streak but is a 4.5-point road underdog.
Texas has beaten Missouri (34-20), Mississippi State (31-3), and Ole Miss (34-27) during their three-game winning streak. Arch Manning has looked resurrected with six passing touchdowns in the last two games and 517 passing yards. Against Mississippi State, the defense had seven sacks, and while Texas didn’t generate as much pressure versus Missouri, the Longhorns held the Tigers to 3-of-16 on third downs. Texas only played two true road games all year at Tennessee (20-17 win) and Missouri (34-20 win). Texas also played a neutral-site game with Oklahoma after the Tennessee game and lost 27-24.
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LSU couldn’t get much going offensively against Alabama. In the first half, LSU made a field goal, missed one, turned the ball over on downs, and threw an interception. The Tigers started the second half with 10 quick points to take a 13-10 lead, then squandered it. Alabama went on a 21-0 run as LSU turned the ball over on downs three times and punted once in the fourth quarter. With another loss, LSU is out of playoff contention, but with a win, the Tigers could be on the cusp of being one of the last teams in.
Let’s dive into the schools on both sides of the ball, look at a few key players, and see where the numbers take us.
Game Details and How to Watch Texas vs LSU
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Date: Saturday, November 14, 2026
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Time: 7:30 PM Eastern
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Site: Tiger Stadium
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City: Baton Rouge, LA
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TV/Streaming: ABC
Game Odds for LSU vs Texas
The latest odds as of Friday courtesy of DraftKings:
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Moneyline: LSU Tigers (-205), Texas Longhorns (+170)
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Spread: LSU -4.5 (-115)
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Total: 46.5 points
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#6 Texas Longhorns
Head Coach: Steve Sarkisian
2026 Record: 7-2 (4-2)
Offensive Points Per Game: 31.1 (48th)
Defensive Points Per Game: 17.4 (18th)
2026 Strength of Schedule: 12th
2026 Remaining Strength of Schedule: 14th
The Texas Longhorns Offense:
The Texas offense has scored 31-plus points in the past three games and averaged 357.7 yards per game. Arch Manning has nine total touchdowns in that stretch and has averaged over seven yards per completion in all three, but the negatives have been the turnovers. Texas has turned the ball over six times in that span and committed 26 penalties.
Texas Player to Watch on Offense: QB Arch Manning
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In the past two games, Arch Manning might be playing his best football. Manning threw for 220 yards and three touchdowns on 16-of-20 versus Mississippi State and 297 passing yards on 28-of-38 and three touchdowns at Missouri. The 517 yards in those two games are the most in a two-game span for him this season and tied his career-high for most passing touchdowns in a two-game stretch (6).
The Texas Longhorns Defense:
In the three game winning streak, Texas held their opponents to 15-of-49 on third downs and 88.3 rushing yards per game. Texas only managed one sack against Missouri last week, but gets a boost back with their star edge rusher Colin Simmons returning from injury. The Longhorns have allowed 17 and 20 points in their two road games this season and LSU is coming off a season-low 13 points.
Texas Player to Watch on Defense: EDGE Colin Simmons
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Colin Simmons missed the Missouri game, but is back for this trip to Death Valley. Simmons has 10.5 sacks (T-3rd) and 17.0 TFL (2nd) on the year and only played six games! Leavitt was sacked four times last week, so I’d expect Simmons to get himself one. He has a sack in five-straight games.
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#21 LSU Tigers
Head Coach: Lane Kiffin
2026 Record: 6-3 (3-3)
Offensive Points Per Game: 37.1 (18th)
Defensive Points Per Game: 17.6 (19th)
2026 Strength of Schedule: 19th
2026 Remaining Strength of Schedule: 9th
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The LSU Tigers Offense:
LSU managed 457 yards of offense against Alabama, but a season-low 13 points. Sam Leavitt had his first game without a passing touchdown and the Tigers went 0-for-4 on fourth downs. Nothing was going LSU’s way, not even the ground game as they ran for 2.3 yards per carry. In the two games prior, LSU scored 69 total points and Sam Leavitt had eight total touchdowns. LSU’s scored 31-plus points in five out of six home games, but I wouldn’t count on this being another.
LSU Player to Watch on Offense: QB Sam Leavitt
For the first time all season, Sam Leavitt had zero total touchdowns despite throwing a season-high 47 passes. Leavitt has thrown 92 passes in the last two games and tossed 766 yards. His two-game streak without an interception was snapped against Alabama, and the four sacks taken were the second-most all season. I expect a bounce-back performance from Leavitt and an aggressive game plan that sees him throwing 40-plus times again.
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The LSU Tigers Defense:
When LSU allows 31 or more points, they are 0-3. When LSU holds opponents to 30 or less, they are 6-0, so the script has been clear this year. One could argue that LSU is a more defensive-minded team this season and they would be right. Outside of the 31-13 loss to Alabama, LSU has allowed 14 or fewer points in their other five home games. LSU hasn’t forced a turnover in two games and has one dating back four contests.
LSU Player to Watch on Defense: DL Princewill Umanmielen
Princewill Umanmielen failed to register a sack against Alabama, but watch out for this matchup. Umanmielen has 8.5 sacks on the year and 12.0 TFL, both ranking top 15. With a half-sack, Umanmielen will tie his career-high of 9.0 sacks with Ole Miss last year.
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LSU and Texas, Betting Trends
LSU trends
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LSU if 4-5 ATS and 5-4 to the Over
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LSU is 3-3 ATS at home and 3-3 to the Over
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LSU is 2-2 ATS and 4-0 to the Under vs ranked opponents
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LSU is 3-3 ATS and 4-2 to the Under in SEC games
Texas trends
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Texas is 4-5 ATS and 5-4 to the Under
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Texas is 1-1 ATS and 1-1 to the Over on the road
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Texas is 3-7 ATS as an underdog with Steve Sarkisian, ranking third-worst in the country since 2021
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Texas is 2-8 on the ML as an underdog since 2021
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Texas is 8-2 to the Under as an underdog since 2021
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Texas is 3-3 ATS in SEC games
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Texas is 2-2 ATS vs ranked opponents
Rotoworld Best Bets
Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports) leans LSU -4.5 and the Under 46.5:
These are two nasty defenses that have carried the load this season. Both units have thrived at creating pressure, and both have two of the best pass rushers in the entire country. Both quarterbacks here may be overrated and have a habit of turning it around and streaking, throwing up a stinker. Sam Leavitt had his stinker last week. It might be Arch Manning‘s turn. First to 20 likely wins, and LSU’s defense is better than they showed against Alabama. I trust Lane Kiffin more than Steve Sarkisian here and think Kiffin will be ultra-aggressive as the season comes down to this game. It’s LSU or pass and under or pass.
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Disclaimer : This story is auto aggregated by a computer programme and has not been created or edited by DOWNTHENEWS. Publisher: Sports.yahoo.com
