The 2026 Big Ten College Football Playoff Picture: Week 4

Another week has passed, and finally, the non-conference slate has concluded for 14 of the 18 Big Ten programs. Of those four other programs with at least one more non-conference matchup left, two will wrap up this week. All in all, it was a successful week with most of the non-conference matchups going the Big Ten’s way. Michigan State gave Notre Dame a bit of a game, but fell. The same goes for Maryland against Virginia Tech.

Now that we are getting into Big Ten play, things could get squirrelly. Last week, Rutgers gave USC everything it could handle. If that happens more often, this season could get very interesting.

Advertisement

The 2026 Big Ten College Football Playoff Picture: Week 4

Locked In

N/A

We are only three weeks into the season, so no team has officially locked in a spot. There are some who have great chances and the path is clearly laid out, but according to ESPN’s FPI, only two Big Ten teams have a greater than 40% chance to make the playoff as it stands.

Contenders

#5 Indiana

The cream of the crop in the Big Ten, once again, are the defending national champs. Indiana is 3-0 for the third consecutive season and posted its second shutout in as many weeks. Obviously the “who have they played” caveat applies, but Indiana has been as dominant as any. Charlie Becker has 12 receptions on the year…and six have gone for touchdowns. Josh Hoover is completing 72.5% of his passes for 649 yards and 10 touchdowns with no interceptions.

Advertisement

Also, defensively, keep the name Tobi Osunsanmi in mind as the Hoosiers kick off Big Ten play.

#7 Ohio State

If you checked social media following Ohio State’s 59-3 trouncing of Kent State without knowing the result, you’d think it was a tough game for the Buckeyes. Questions certainly remain – especially concerning third-down and red zone execution – but Ohio State was plenty dominant.

Now, with another record under his belt, Jeremiah Smith is set to lead the Buckeyes into conference play this weekend.

#12 USC

Well, that was interesting, wasn’t it?

USC was locked into a four-quarter dogfight with winless Rutgers on Saturday, much to everyone’s surprise. The offense is still incredible, led by Jayden Maiava. The Trojans are averaging 43 points per game, and Maiava leads the nation in completions, completion percentage, yards, and touchdowns.

Advertisement

The defense seems to be another story. Sure, USC is allowing just 22.8 points per game, but Louisiana scored 30, and Rutgers put up 35.

USC gets to play another high-octane offense with seemingly no defense this week, so bet the over.

#13 Penn State

Most people overlooked Penn State coming into this season due to how last year went. Well, Matt Campbell has the Nittany Lions off to a 3-0 start thanks to some incredible defense. The main concern with Penn State was how weak the schedule looked on paper. Today, it still looks weak, so if Penn State can take care of business against the 10 unranked foes on the schedule, it could find its way into the CFP.

Advertisement

Time To Show It

#17 Iowa

The Hawkeyes seemingly figuring out the offensive side of the ball is akin to “uh oh, Happy learned how to putt.” Through three weeks, Iowa is averaging 37 points per game, it scored 42 in the first half last week for the first time since 2005, and has done well to this point.

The stats against Iowa State are concerning, of course, so Iowa will need to find another gear. How many wins can the Hawkeyes stack up thanks to their defense? Kirk Ferentz has been bowl-eligible in every season save for two, so that number is certainly greater than zero.

#18 Michigan

The Wolverines seemingly get stronger each time anyone mentions the Week 1 debacle. After beating Oklahoma, Michigan was just too much for UTEP. Now, things get difficult.

Advertisement

Bryce Underwood is still wholly underwhelming at quarterback, but Andrew Marsh and JJ Buchanan have each shown they can step up when asked. Of course, the strength remains on the defensive side of the ball. Michigan has three players with more than two sacks, two of which have four tackles for loss.

#20 Oregon

Putting up 84 points on Portland State was just rude. Oregon has a great offense and a suspect defense, so this week’s matchup with USC is going to be must-see TV.

Unbeaten And Unranked

UCLA

Remember last year when UCLA started off the year 0-4 with losses to two Group of 6 teams and Northwestern? Bob Chesney’s squad has come so far from then in his first season. The Bruins are one of the two teams with a Big Ten win after taking down Purdue last week, but giving up 38 points may be concerning. This week should be a better litmus test.

Advertisement

Nebraska

After a pair of MACrifices, Nebraska took care of business against North Dakota (FCS) last week, 34-7. Jamal Rule continued his breakout campaign with 119 yards and two scores, pacing the way on offense. Nebraska has a good one at running back; let’s see how long Rule can carry that offense.

Washington

Winning 48-16 and still dropping out of the rankings must be frustrating, but Washington is more focused on the Big Ten schedule ahead. Demond Williams was incredible in the win, finishing with 373 yards and four touchdowns. On the receiving end, the Huskies had two players amass over 100 yards (though neither scored).

Advertisement

Northwestern

Who knew playing in a library could be considered home-field advantage? Colorado didn’t much care for the Wildcats’ unorthodox stadium, and were thoroughly trounced after getting caught on a hot mic. We aren’t too sure if the Wildcats are going to be relevant this year, but if they manage to make things interesting at Indiana this week and/or next week at Penn State, it could be a situation worth monitoring.

Something Could Be There

Illinois

The Fighting Illini got back on the right side of the scoreboard after falling to Duke in Week 2. Oh, did you know Collin Dixon leads the nation with seven receiving touchdowns? That’s pretty neat.

Advertisement

Maryland

The Terps scored twice in the fourth quarter to make the score a bit more respectable against Virginia Tech, but it wasn’t nearly enough. Maryland wasn’t able to run the ball, but still went toe-to-toe with VT, at least in terms of yardage.

Michigan State

Well, the Spartans were able to keep things somewhat interesting against Notre Dame, but they were clearly overmatched. Offensively, Michigan State managed just 167 yards, compared to Notre Dame’s 395. The defense could be something worth watching, but the offense may need a little work.

Minnesota

Minnesota was able to rebound after its unsuccessful trip to Mississippi State. Of course, smacking around Akron won’t move the needle one way or another. Drake Lindsey is a legitimate NFL Draft-ready quarterback, but the question will be if he can carry the Gophers through the Big Ten.

Advertisement

Wisconsin

The Badgers have rattled off back-to-back wins after their season-opening loss to Notre Dame. Given, neither of the wins was over particularly good teams, so we will figure out what Luke Fickell’s squad will be after this week.

Eliminated

Week 4 Big Ten Schedule

• Rutgers (0-3, 0-1): vs Howard (FCS) (Friday, 7:00 p.m. ET, Big Ten Network)

• Northwestern (2-1, 0-0) at #5 Indiana (3-0, 0-0) (Friday, 8:00 p.m. ET, FOX)

• Illinois (2-1, 0-0) at #7 Ohio State (2-1, 0-0) (12:00 p.m. ET, FOX)

• UCLA (3-0, 1-0) at Maryland (2-1, 0-0) (1:30 p.m. ET, Big Ten Network)

• Purdue (1-2, 0-1): vs Notre Dame (2:00 p.m. ET, Peacock)

• #17 Iowa (3-0, 0-0) at #18 Michigan (3-0, 0-0) (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS)

• Wisconsin (2-1, 0-0) at #13 Penn State (3-0, 0-0) (5:00 p.m. ET, Peacock)

• Nebraska (3-0, 0-0) at Michigan State (2-1. 0-0) (5:00 p.m. ET, Big Ten Network)

• #20 Oregon (2-1, 0-0) at #12 USC (4-0, 1-0) (7:30 p.m. ET, NBC)

• Minnesota (2-1, 0-0) at Washington (3-0, 0-0) (11:00 p.m. ET, FOX)

More Big Ten News

Disclaimer : This story is auto aggregated by a computer programme and has not been created or edited by DOWNTHENEWS. Publisher: Sports.yahoo.com