The battle for Bendigo East: Inside the race that could upend the state election

It was more than a quarter of a century ago that a young Jacinta Allan pulled off an upset few political watchers saw coming.

In 1999, the 26-year-old political aspirant captured Bendigo East, a seat which had been held for the Liberal Party by former minister Michael John since 1985.

A near nine per cent swing – driven by regional discontent, economic anxiety and a backlash against the centralised style of Jeff Kennett’s Coalition government – catapulted Allan into parliament.

Labor had capitalised on a mood that had been building for months, reshaping the electoral map in the process.

Fast forward to 2026 and November’s looming state election, and the echoes of 1999 are difficult to ignore.

A long-serving government confronting signs of fatigue, polling pointing to deep voter dissatisfaction, and a premier struggling to connect.

In Bendigo, familiar grievances – cost of living pressures and a perception of regional voters being ignored – are also resurfacing.

The National Party is hoping to capitalise on these conditions, preselecting local publican Andrew Lethlean this week as their candidate. He comes with political momentum after he came close to toppling the local federal MP, Labor’s Lisa Chesters, at last year’s federal election.

His well-resourced campaign targeted disillusioned voters and achieved a swing of almost 10 per cent, slashing Chesters’ margin to 1.4 per cent.

In theory, Allan’s 10.8 per cent margin and political cachet should insulate her from a similar swing. But the political tides that favoured Allan in 1999 could turn against her now.

Kevin de Vries, who lives in the growing community of Junortoun in the Bendigo East electorate, says local credentials are an important factor for voters deciding who they will support.

He believes Allan’s longstanding local profile makes the state election different from last year’s federal poll.

But he believes voters will inevitably want to know what candidates will promise to enhance their communities.

“Self-interest drives voting as well as the philosophy that a candidate or party might bring,” he says.

De Vries wants to see better planning for growth in Junortoun and community infrastructure, including new bike paths connecting his neighbourhood with Bendigo’s CBD. He believes this sort of infrastructure and improved public transport would reduce car reliance, which could be an attractive election promise given the soaring cost of fuel.

On a numerical reading, Allan should comfortably win Bendigo East. She attracted 48 per cent of the primary vote at the 2022 election, which would ordinarily relegate the seat down Labor’s list of priorities.

But the Premier isn’t taking anything for granted. In 1999, as a fresh-faced political aspirant, Allan door-knocked almost two-thirds of voters in the electorate.

In February, before Lethlean confirmed his second political tilt, the Premier posted a photo of herself out doorknocking once again in Epsom, a booming suburb in Bendigo’s north. At last year’s federal election, Chesters – Allan’s Labor counterpart in Canberra – suffered a 10.5 per cent primary vote swing against her at the local polling booth at Epsom Primary School.

This week, when asked about the threat of the National Party, Allan said she had “fought damn hard, fought every single day” for Bendigo East, which she said had been a marginal electorate since she won it from the Liberals.

Inside Labor’s campaign machine, despite its healthy buffer, Bendigo East has never been treated as a safe seat. Instead, it has regularly attracted an A-classification – a designation that dictates campaign spending and resources – particularly at the 2006 and 2010 elections when the party’s head office considered the seat at risk.

That designation now seems justified. Lethlean has demonstrated his ability to harness anger in the region, with the swing he secured against Chesters bucking the national trend as Anthony Albanese’s Labor Party swept to a thumping 94-seat majority.

That result was underwritten by a well-resourced campaign which National Party insiders say cost upwards of $750,000.

The bigger problem for Labor may not be the challenger, but the incumbent. The latest Resolve Political Monitor, conducted for The Age, shows support for the government has stalled at 28 per cent, while Allan’s own net satisfaction rating of -37 makes her less popular than her predecessor Daniel Andrews.

Internal polling conducted by the Coalition paints an even more dire picture, with a four-seat poll of regional areas putting her net satisfaction rating closer to -50, according to several sources.

“She’s in a world of strife,” a senior National Party figure said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal party strategy.

But Resolve pollster Jim Reed has cautioned against overstating the risk for Allan, telling The Age there would need to be a “massive swing to put this seat in play”.

He said that while that kind of shift may be conceivable statewide, the rise of One Nation “muddies the waters” by fragmenting the protest vote rather than directing it clearly against Labor.

Reed noted that local dynamics may also cut differently on polling day, with some voters continuing to distinguish between dissatisfaction with the government and their long-standing support for Allan as a local member.

But there remain structural issues that could threaten Allan’s hold on the seat. Unlike Chester’s federal seat, which is buffered by some more progressive pockets such as Castlemaine and inner Bendigo households centred around the city’s arts precinct, Bendigo East lacks those advantages.

Labor MPs and officials believe Allan can overcome these hurdles. Born and raised in Bendigo, she comes with a local pedigree and connections that Chesters – who was born and educated in Queensland – could not draw on in quite the same way.

While Lethlean can match Allan’s local credentials, she brings unmatched political experience to the contest.

Hayley Tibbett, chief executive of the Bendigo chamber of commerce, says Allan is known throughout the electorate and that brings credibility with voters.

“The Jacinta we know is not the Jacinta you see on the news,” she says. “When you see her on the TV it does tend to be pretty harsh. We know her as someone who comes into our shops with her family.”

However, Tibbett says Lethlean is also well known through his businesses and community activities.

“I think it will come back to the policies. We’re still waiting to see where that will land.”

Tibbett says Bendigo is among the regional centres with enormous potential, but population growth needs to be supported with investment in infrastructure and industrial land, so businesses can expand and the area can attract new investment.

“At the same time, hospitality and retail operators are among the hardest hit by rising costs and regulatory pressures, and supporting these sectors through practical measures would make a real difference, not just for those businesses, but for the overall vibrancy of our city.”

While Allan has spent most of her career on the government benches, colleagues point to the importance of her stint in opposition from 2010 to 2014, where she built a reputation as a disciplined and effective political brawler, landing repeated blows on the Baillieu-Napthine government.

Those that have worked closely with her say she isn’t easily rattled and should not be underestimated.

“She’ll be fine, it’s not even an issue,” a cabinet colleague told The Age this week.

For Allan, this fight also has a personal element.

While National Party MPs have historically attracted less political venom from Labor figures, Allan is an exception. Her politics were shaped early – by her father, a union linesman, and her grandfather Bill, a long-time Bendigo Trades Hall president – in an environment where hostility to the Coalition, and particularly the Nationals for their anti-union stance, was ingrained.

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