The deadly problem Trump has failed to fix with his ceasefire

London: A new warning from the Iranian military has just highlighted the weakness in Donald Trump’s peace deal with Tehran despite the stated goal of ending the war on all fronts.

Iranian officials issued an alert to ships in the Strait of Hormuz telling them the key shipping lane was closed, again, and that their security was at risk if they sought to pass.

“Due to the crimes in Lebanon and the violation of the US commitments regarding the ceasefire, the Strait of Hormuz is closed to all vessels again,” they said in a radio alert reported on Saturday (Middle East time).

The threat was swiftly disputed by US Central Command, which insisted the strait was open.

“Safe passage through the international waterway remained intact today as 55 merchant ships transited, moving large amounts of cargo and more than 17 million barrels of oil to global markets,” the US military said.

Maritime experts at Lloyd’s List released data soon afterwards showing vessels were still moving into and out of the Persian Gulf.

“Despite Iran claiming it was closing the strait, traffic was seen moving with AIS on via the northern route and also the southern route for the first time in weeks,” it said. AIS refers to the transponders, or automatic identification systems, that ships use to disclose their location.

The result: confusion over the shipping lanes used for 20 per cent of the world’s oil.

The US president had an answer to this on social media. Trump declared that there would be no tolls on ships in the strait unless he decided to put US tolls on the traffic. This idea, sure to startle shipping lines and their customers, seemed to be his way of seeking leverage.

But messages on social media cannot force Iranian hardliners to stand down. And the US president, no matter how powerful, cannot force ships to transit the gulf if their owners, and their insurers, decide the risks are too great.

Chatham House security analyst Nitya Labh highlighted this problem within days of Trump’s peace deal. Uncertainty over the waterway, she noted, meant insurance companies might not reduce their premiums. The shipping trade would need more evidence of commitment from both the US and Iranian sides of the deal.

“Even if the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, Iran will still retain the ability to close it again,” she wrote. “The threat of closure alone may be enough to deter shipping and create significant disruption without significant cost to Tehran.”

The events on Saturday seemed to prove this point. Tehran spread confusion without causing any harm to the regime.

The key factor was the reason given for trying to close the strait. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps blamed Israel’s latest airstrikes on Lebanon, as well as unspecified failures by the US, for the decision. It linked the oil trade to Lebanon.

The IRGC is not a good faith actor or a source of moral authority on the terms of the peace. It is listed as a terrorist organisation by Australia and others, and it continues to detain and kill Iranian dissidents who want democracy.

The connection between Lebanon and the broader peace terms, however, remains a key feature of Trump’s agreement. So far, it is also a key source of failure.

Despite the supposed ceasefire, the war in Lebanon continued on Saturday. The Lebanese news agency, NNA, reported 16 dead and 12 injured from Israeli attacks on Nabatiyeh in the south of the country. It reported seven dead and 13 wounded, including children, in Sidon, also in the south. In Sohmor, in the Bekaa region, there were four dead and one injured.

This took place barely a day after global news coverage of what was meant to be a renewed ceasefire.

Israel blamed Hezbollah for launching more than 50 explosives and projectiles at Israeli forces. An Israel Defence Forces soldier was killed and another 13 wounded in a Hezbollah attack on an IDF position near Nabatiyeh before dawn on Saturday.

Talks in Switzerland on Sunday, local time, may bring progress. US Vice President JD Vance is due to join the talks with Iranian parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. White House envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are also part of the negotiations.

The problem is that Trump is yet to find a way to stop Hezbollah attacks on northern Israel or Israeli attacks on Lebanon.

“We expect a complete ceasefire on all fronts, including Lebanon, Hezbollah and Israel,” Trump said on Thursday.

He has vented his frustration with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, but he has not forced the Israeli leader to stop military strikes that kill Lebanese civilians, including children.

History suggests Trump might be able to do so, if he tried. In August 1982, Israeli forces bombed west Beirut. Within hours, US president Ronald Reagan phoned Israeli prime minister Menachem Begin to urge a halt to the strikes. The White House told the press that the president had “expressed his outrage” at the death and destruction. Begin ordered a complete ceasefire.

Reagan would not say if he had threatened to halt arms sales to Israel over that dispute, although there were other moments when he delayed sales. The details remain unclear, but Reagan got a result that Trump has been unable to achieve.

Would Netanyahu listen to Trump if the president tried to force a halt to strikes on Lebanon? After the way Hamas slaughtered Israeli civilians in October 2023, there is no patience in Israel with Hezbollah attacks. If anything, there is a demand for revenge for every rocket.

Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir gave voice to this on Friday. “For every tear of an Israeli mother, a thousand Lebanese mothers must weep,” he wrote on X. “All of Lebanon must burn!”

“You need to go berserk. To obliterate. To crush the terror.”

Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir

Ben-Gvir, the minister who taunted detainees from a protest flotilla in May, has been condemned for his post. But he is speaking for those in Israel who want Hezbollah destroyed at all costs, even if that means making southern Lebanon look like Gaza.

“Enough with the ping-pong,” Ben-Gvir wrote. “In the Middle East, you don’t win with measured responses and restraint – you need to go berserk. To obliterate. To crush the terror.”

With Hezbollah and the IRGC on one side and Ben-Gvir on the other, there may be no chance for peace in Lebanon. This remains a threat to the broader peace as long as Tehran wants to protect its Hezbollah proxies.

Trump claimed he had a peace deal. But he has not broken the connection between the airstrikes in Lebanon and the shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz. While the war continues in one location, the uncertainty continues in the other.

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