The front-runners, the dark horses and the one who will rub you up the wrong way on MasterChef

And so, after three thrilling nights of MasterChef Australia 2026, in which 40 exceptional cooks fought it out on the kitchen floor, 16 have gone home, dreams shattered, while 23 have postponed the shattering of their dreams to a later date.

For one of those cooks, though – ah! Such wonders lie ahead. For among the final 24 who were handed aprons in the first week, one will be crowned THE MasterChef of 2026, and the world will be their oyster, delicately pan-fried in butter.

At this stage, we know so little about the 24 finalists that it would be totally reckless to make serious predictions about who might be the strongest contenders. But if we stopped making ill-informed premature prognostications, the entire media ecosystem would collapse, so let’s go.

Here are the MasterChef contestants who already, in 2026, look likely to give the title a serious shake.

At the head of the queue for me is Lydia. The fact she grabbed an instant apron when the judges tasted her dish speaks well for her culinary skill, but added to this is the fact that Lydia is an absolute classic ready-made MasterChef icon.

A wife and mum grabbing her chance after a lifetime of devotion to family, this is the little Aussie battler underdog story that Lydia was born for. And judging by her tearful, squealing, dancing response to her success, she’s clearly got the big, unfiltered personality that reality TV loves.

Another mum stepping into the limelight is Hannah, who in one episode managed to mention her four kids back in WA about 50 times. Hannah is going on the offensive in the kitchen battle, clearly willing to hammer home the message that she’s a stay-at-home mum doing it for her kids, and making the huge sacrifice to make her dream happen.

Again, a classic MasterChef tale, and what she has shown at the stovetop suggests that while raising her kids, she has honed some seriously refined gourmet chops. As in skills, that is, not, you know, actual chops.

However, if it comes to a battle of the backstories, everyone is going to have bring their A game to compete with Olaolu, who stood out as a major threat on night one.

Olaolu has a great tale to tell, with a heartstring-tugging account of an immigrant kid desperate to fit in, and in adulthood trying to reconnect with his culture.

Also, with a sensibility centred on his Nigerian heritage, Olaolu is bringing to the table expertise in a national cuisine that has been little seen on Australian food TV before, and his point of difference is bound to go down a treat with the judges. His air of humble confidence should win him plenty of fans among viewers too.

Speaking of humble, Luke isn’t. At only 19, his extreme youth, and even extremer cockiness, is definitely going to rub people up the wrong way, which is why producers will be very keen to see Luke go deep into the competition. With both his attitude and his moustache channelling Marty Supreme, Luke is the archetypal … well, not a villain exactly, but probably as close to one as MasterChef gets – the strutting kid brimming with bravado who people half-admire, half-love to see trip up.

This would mean nothing if he didn’t have the skills to pay the bills, but in his last-gasp shot at an apron, Luke tried a Hail Mary and pulled it off, producing a perfect bombe alaska in 90 minutes despite the judges’ certainty that it was impossible.

Bearded Bathurst bloke Pat is nowhere near as cocky as Luke, but is the neatest fit for this year’s “knockabout Aussie everyman” slot. With his early appearance laying heavy stress on the very un-haute cuisine background that Pat has come from, his performance at the bench showed a far more refined sensibility than outward appearances might have suggested. Pat has class, and his quiet blue-collar appeal will earn him a hefty fanbase as he cuts what should be a swathe through the opposition.

Youth worker Emily also has a great down-to-earth vibe going, quickly proving herself a chatterbox with an irrepressible sense of humour and effervescent confidence. One senses we’re going to get a lot of MasterChef-friendly family anecdotes too, with Emily drawing on her upbringing in a Chinese restaurant in rural NSW. Small-town Aussie vibes mixed with the richness of Chinese culinary heritage – that is a winning combination on all kinds of fronts. She’s a surefire contender – if she goes early, it’ll be a surprise and a shame.

Those are my frontrunners, but there are dark horses who could be primed to spring surprise rails runs. These include Grace, whose soapie-star looks will make sure the camera spends a lot of time on her, but whose catering experience makes her a proper threat; Petro, who has “comeback king” written all over him, if he can keep his passion for Poh under control; and Vinnie, who so far has only made a sandwich, but what a sandwich!

Nothing is written, and time will tell – remind me of these predictions at the end of the season so I can be suitably embarrassed.