The numbers that show Pies-Hawks draw should never have been close

It was the Thursday night thriller that really shouldn’t have been.

An out-matched Collingwood team on paper had little right to be competitive with Hawthorn, let alone beat them – but almost did so any way despite losing many of the key metrics in a landslide.

Coach Craig McRae even assumed that no one gave his team a chance.

They led for most of the night in front of 76,632 fans at the MCG, only for Pies captain Darcy Moore to drop a mark he would normally swallow before conceding a sloppy high free kick to Dylan Moore, who steered through a goal after the siren to leave the sides to settle for a draw.

That accurate Moore finish, from inside 30 metres, was a rare one for the Hawks, who amassed more behinds (15) than goals (13) as Collingwood kicked 15.3 to make up for being beaten up in clearance and at the contest.

Hawthorn coach Sam Mitchell called it an “outlier” performance, given his players have typically been potent with their opportunities this season.

The 15th of those behinds was crucial – a miss off Massimo D’Ambrosio’s left boot that sliced the Magpies’ lead to six points with about 40 seconds left. A Tom Barrass mark moments later won the Sherrin back for the Hawks, to set in motion a dramatic climax.

“I said to the boys, ‘We didn’t win tonight, but we definitely didn’t lose’,” McRae said.

“I think it’s important to acknowledge that we played some really good footy against arguably the best team in the competition … we’re definitely [glass] half full, and top me up because we’ve got a bit more coming.”

The result was a statistical improbability.

The Magpies had 75 fewer disposals, and trailed woefully in inside 50s (34-62), clearances (23-39, including 5-19 out of the centre) and contested possessions (105-134), yet repeatedly made the most of their scoring chances.

Take the last quarter: Hawk Josh Weddle fluffed a set shot from barely 20 metres out, directly in front, only for Jamie Elliott to drill a superb goal at the other end from right on the 50-metre arc after he ran as close to the mark as possible to ensure he made the distance.

The opening stages of the second half also encapsulated a strange night of football.

Hawthorn failed to score from eight consecutive inside 50s to begin the third term before ruthlessly efficient Collingwood kicked back-to-back goals via Elliott and Will Hayes from their two chances that followed.

“I don’t know how to give a name to the emotion – it was certainly odd,” Mitchell said.

“There’s a part of me that thinks you look at the numbers, and you’re like, ‘How do we come away with only two points?’, and then with two minutes to go, [you think], ‘How did we get two points?’. I’m unsure how to feel. To me, that’s one of the great beauties of sport.”

There was controversy in the last few minutes, too.

A 50-metre penalty against Hawk Cam Mackenzie gifted Steele Sidebottom a crucial goal, not long after Nick Watson was somehow not rewarded for a chase-down tackle on Billy Frampton in Hawthorn’s attacking 50.

Mitchell opted to sidestep offering his opinion on them, but Connor Macdonald, who starred with 28 disposals and three goals, was surprised that Watson did not receive a free kick.

“I kicked it down there, and thought, ‘How good is this? We just got a free kick; we might kick a goal here’, but I guess the umpires didn’t see it that way, and we had to quickly move on,” Macdonald told The Age.

“There was a lot going on, and it was another good experience for us. You’ve just got to try and be calm in those situations. I think we did a good job to end up drawing it, but it’s a weird feeling.”

Collingwood champion Nick Daicos won a match-high 34 disposals playing under duress and Dan Houston was superb with 32 touches of his own, while Hawks co-captain Jai Newcombe gathered 28 disposals and won nine clearances to be best afield.

Elliott finished with three goals, while Watson was box-office viewing, as usual.

With one incredible burst of speed in the first half, Watson swooped on the loose ball, tapped it forward, gathered at pace, evaded a diving Jack Crisp’s tackle attempt, and blasted through a goal from point-blank range. He also put on the afterburners, and was similarly opportunistic, to slot his second a quarter later.

Then, with the three-quarter-time siren fast approaching, Watson created something from nothing along the boundary line to help Calsher Dear beat the buzzer and give the Hawks a two-point edge at the last break.

“When he did that handball thing, just before three-quarter-time, I was like, ‘Far out, I’m glad he’s playing on our team’,” Mitchell said of Watson. “I don’t know how you stop him.”

Collingwood defender Harry Perryman’s night ended late in the first half because of a hamstring injury, while Sidebottom (hand), Darcy Cameron (ankle), Elliott (back) and Daicos came off at different stages.

Hawthorn backman James Sicily also nursed a sore ankle in the last quarter, but Mitchell was optimistic he would be fit to make the trip west to face Fremantle next Thursday night.

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