Big games are won in big moments, and the biggest game of 2026 will be no different.
The Roosters and Knights have plenty of points in them, and score them in distinctly different ways. But they have also been the two best defensive sides of the finals series, despite their roads to the decider being very different.
Newcastle have been underdogs the whole way – knocking off South Sydney, travelling to New Zealand, rumbling heavyweights Penrith with only 12 players – and now they ride momentum and emotion that is unlike any other in rugby league.
On Sunday, I think those Knights fans could take over as much as 80 per cent of Accor Stadium, and really would that surprise anyone at all?
The Roosters have had a dream run in comparison after going to war with Penrith in week one of the finals, knocking over the Sharks and Dolphins, and earning themselves a nine-day build-up to the grand final.
Knights can win on the edges. But is Phoenix irreplaceable?
Newcastle started the season with a smaller pack and less depth than most clubs in the middle, so they worked out how to make their edge attack a real focal point, especially coming out of their own end.
Three of their four tries against Penrith came from their own half, and now they’ve scored 35 this season from their own side of halfway.
Big, bad Francis Manuleleua finished off one of the Knights’ first attacking plays last week and will be opposite Daly Cherry-Evans – whose history of being isolated in defence has been well-documented. On the opposite edge, Jermaine McEwen will line up on Sam Walker with an advantage of almost 30 kilos.
At the very least, this is where Newcastle will look to work over the Roosters halves, create quick play-the-balls and wear them out.
The big challenge for the Knights though is that they are missing Jacob Saifiti, Trey Mooney and now Crossland – who has made more tackles than any other player in the NRL this year and kicked four 40-20s (equal most in the competition) as well.
Without their first-choice front row, Newcastle will have a middle trio rotation of Tyson Frizell, Mat Croker and Cody Hopwood starting up against Naufahu Whyte, Lindsay Collins and Victor Radley – three world-class players.
It’s a huge task. But if the Knights forwards can hold their own, I think they can set up a Newcastle upset. That said, you really can’t underestimate Crossland’s absence either.
Harrison Graham has averaged 34 minutes a game this year off the bench in short, explosive stints, so how Newcastle coach Justin Holbrook manages his new dummy half duties is going to have a big influence on the Knights, with and without the ball.
And where Newcastle need to really improve on last week is with their good-ball kicking game. Dane Gagai and Fletcher Sharpe both gave away seven-tackle sets against Penrith, and Newcastle have battled to score points from inside the 20-metre zone during the finals. I think it’s on Sandon Smith to own that kicking game in attack.
The 13cm height difference in the Roosters favour
The Roosters, meanwhile, have been absolutely flying and have scored 82 points in their past two games.
Aside from Connor Watson’s concussion concerns, the Chooks are fully fit, have attacking options all over the field and none are more lethal than their two towering, champion wingers, Daniel Tupou and Mark Nawaqanitawase, who will be just waiting for those cross-field kicks from Walker and Cherry-Evans.
No side has scored as many tries from kicks as the Roosters (37) this year, and the 13cm height difference between Nawaqanitawase and Greg Marzhew makes Newcastle’s left wing an obvious target for the Tricolours.
Walker did not miss a beat in his return from ankle surgery last week, and he brings so much creativity, along with the best short kicking game in the competition.
The Roosters right edge has been their most dangerous, with Rob Toia already an elite centre in just his second year of first grade, Siua Wong in career-best form and Cherry-Evans and Nawaqanitawase playing their last games of NRL (for now anyway in Marky Mark’s case).
The Tricolours will love that they are flying under the radar this week with their middles in excellent form, while Angus Crichton and Spencer Leniu add real aggression and punch off the bench.
The Roosters have the big-game advantage and experience, with 13 Origin players and genuine international stars. But they also still have a run of bad back-to-back errors and cheap penalties in their game, which can bring Newcastle’s set plays into the contest.
The champions who will decide the biggest moments
As I said, I think it will be a big moment and a big player that decides the grand final.
And they don’t get any bigger than the two captains and fullbacks, James Tedesco and Kalyn Ponga. They’re both such freakish players and Kalyn is in career-best form. He is the Knights biggest attacking threat down their left edge feeding Bradman Best and Marzhew, and he has discovered a rare form of leadership I honestly didn’t know he had in him.
And Teddy, he isn’t far off his best form either. But his threat – along with the ball-playing he’s added to his game in the past few years – is around the ruck when he combines with Reece Robson.
The NSW hooker has really emerged as a devastating run threat this finals series as well, particularly when the ball is in play for five or six minutes and middle forwards start to tire.
Along with the champion captains, I’ll also be keeping my eye are out for:
- Ponga scything down the Knights’ left edge and aiming to either burn Cherry-Evans with pure speed, or hoodwink him into a poor defensive decision.
- Toia’s lethal right-foot step.
- Fletcher Sharpe – the flying mullet from Cessnock – as the best support player in the game.
- Walker’s short kicking game, particularly in behind Sharpe as the third defender in from the sideline.
If the forecast for a dry track on Sunday holds up, I think that suits Newcastle more with their ball movement. And with all the emotion and crowd support, I think they pull off an upset, if they start well and score first.
Line speed, pressure on the Roosters’ star halves and forcing errors is how the Knights pull off a miracle. Because if you look at the squads on paper and all the statistics, the Roosters should be winning by 20.
But big games aren’t played on paper, and they aren’t won by reputation. They’re won in big moments, by world-class players.
Joey’s tip: Knights by two
First try-scorer: Greg Marzhew
Clive Churchill Medal winner: Kalyn Ponga
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Andrew Johns is an Immortal, a Newcastle great and a commentator for Channel NineFrom our partners
Disclaimer : This story is auto aggregated by a computer programme and has not been created or edited by DOWNTHENEWS. Publisher: www.smh.com.au
