The UK’s leadership circus has huge implications for Australia

The revolving door of Australian prime ministers over the past decade – Kevin Rudd, Julia Gillard, Rudd (again), Tony Abbott, Malcolm Turnbull, Scott Morrison and finally Anthony Albanese – earned us the unwelcome but not undeserved title of coup capital of the democratic world.

But as the United Kingdom barrels towards its sixth prime minister in just seven years, a new contender has snatched the crown, with profound implications for Australian policy.

Just two years since his landslide election win, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer looks like a dead man walking as contenders circle to replace the underwhelming, uninspiring, scandal-plagued Labour leader. Likely candidates in any leadership election include Andy Burnham, a former Labour MP who has won plaudits as the mayor of Greater Manchester, left-wing former deputy prime minister Angela Rayner, and polarising rising star Wes Streeting, who nominates Paul Keating as his political hero.

Whoever ejects Starmer from Downing Street has a tough job ahead. A new prime minister must heal a divided party, and offer bold and fast policy change. Brits feel like the political system is broken, and have no confidence the middling Labour agenda will dig a once great nation out of its deep funk. As Europe correspondent David Crowe writes, the drama has given those who worry that Britain is broken even more proof of decline. During a recent visit to Manchester, Crowe found a city disillusioned and divided. “This was not just about personalities and media headlines,” he wrote. “Households have been feeling the twin pressures of low wages and rising prices, as well as a chronic housing shortage.” Sounds familiar.

A new prime minister must also confront the rise of Reform, the populist far-right party led by Brexit architect Nigel Farage. Reform just whacked Labour and the Conservatives in recent local council elections and has picked up so much support that it could emerge from the next general election with the largest number of seats.

The fact Farage sits in such a commanding position despite possessing so many character flaws and a simplistic, nasty policy agenda illustrates the level of anger many Brits hold towards their elected leaders. The major parties have failed the people they are meant to serve, and the people are unsurprisingly looking elsewhere.

While the Herald understands this anger, a Farage-led coalition government would be nothing short of a disaster for Australia. Farage is thoroughly ill-equipped to lead one of the world’s most important democracies, and one of Canberra’s closest allies.

If Labour fails to sort itself out over the coming months, the potential for a Reform victory at the next election will only grow. In that scenario, consider this: the two men Australia would have to rely on to deliver AUKUS, share our most sensitive intelligence with, and work alongside amid war and economic woes would be Donald Trump and Nigel Farage. God help us.

Jordan Baker sends an exclusive newsletter to subscribers each week. Sign up to receive her Note from the Editor.