The US tore up the Iran deal. Now it may settle for a weaker one

Last night, verified reports emerged of a forthcoming agreement between the US and Iran. This development, though long-awaited, has surprised not only the Middle East but the entire world. The deal extends far beyond the bilateral US-Iran relationship, as it addresses the security of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, Lebanon’s security, Israel’s position, energy, the role of regional mediators, and the entire security architecture in the Middle East. 

The main goal of the deal, which is set to be concluded on June 19, is not so much to resolve the issue of the Iranian nuclear program for good, as to quell the most dangerous flashpoints of the crisis. Judging by the stated parameters of the deal, Washington is opting for de-escalation through mutual concessions: Tehran would receive economic relief, the unfreezing of some of its assets, and the restoration of maritime trade routes in exchange for formally limiting its nuclear ambitions and refraining from direct threats to regional stability.

The decision to lift the naval blockade and restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is particularly significant. The markets instantly reacted to the news. As soon as US President Donald Trump confirmed his intention to sign the agreement with Iran, the price of Brent crude oil fell to $84 per barrel (for the first time since March 10). This reflects not only cautious optimism among investors but also an expectation that the threat of a major energy shock related to tensions around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz has at least temporarily receded. 

However, if the deal is signed in its current form, we will witness not so much a triumph of American diplomacy as a glaring political paradox. Speaking on behalf of the White House, US Vice President JD Vance is already trying to frame the deal as a victory for the US, but the actual balance of concessions suggests that Tehran is the main beneficiary of these agreements.