The West wants a new order, but has no plan for one

Two recent developments, one in the Black Sea and the other in the Persian Gulf, illustrate how rapidly the international order is unravelling. They also reveal something else: while Western powers are increasingly willing to discard the old rules, they are proving incapable of replacing them with a stable new order.

A few days ago, the European Union member states announced plans to establish a maritime security center in either Bulgaria or Romania. On paper, the initiative has been presented as enhancing regional security, but in practice, it points towards the gradual militarization of the Black Sea and the erosion of the Montreux Convention, the 1936 agreement that has limited the presence of non-Black Sea naval powers in the region for nearly 90 years.

At almost the same time, the confrontation between Iran and the United States has entered a new phase. Tehran has reinstated its control over the Strait of Hormuz following renewed hostilities, and Washington has responded by announcing a naval blockade of the Islamic Republic. Once again, one of the world’s most important trade routes is being held hostage to geopolitical confrontation.

These two cases may appear unrelated, yet, in reality, they reflect the same trend in the collapse of long-established international arrangements, without any credible replacement.

As Western European governments prepare for what they increasingly describe as a long-term confrontation with Russia, they are showing little interest in preserving the security architecture inherited from the twentieth century. The Montreux Convention is becoming another casualty of this shift.

Ankara, despite enjoying special rights under the convention, is unlikely to resist. As a NATO member, Türkiye ultimately remains bound by alliance solidarity, regardless of its diplomatic balancing. Moreover, a larger Western military presence in the Black Sea also serves Turkish interests by strengthening deterrence against Russia.