There’s an invisible PGA Tour bubble that should grab your attention

All throughout this week (and likely on this very website), you’ll hear that it’s playoff bubble week on the PGA Tour. And none of that will be incorrect. This week is the end of the regular season. Next week starts the playoffs. Seventy players are invited. 

So while it may feel natural to scroll to Nos. 70 (playoff inclusion), 50 (Signature Events for 2027), or 30 (Tour Championship), I want you to rip past all of that. You need to look at 90, 91, 92 and further down the line. 

What I’m asking you to do is envision the harsh relegation coming for the PGA Tour — a stricter version than we’ve really ever seen. In 12 months, the PGA Tour’s 2027 regular season will end and automatically ignite a much more compelling race to finish in the top 90, because 90 players, the Tour has said, will book their ticket to the 2028 dance. Almost everyone on the outside will be stuck right there … on the outside.

It may take time for golf fans to fully appreciate it, but it’s currently quite difficult to really drop down a full rung on the Tour. Players who struggle for nine months and rank, say, 146th in the FedEx Cup still have the fall events to greatly boost their standing. And even if they can’t — say they finish at 130th after the fall — they’re still bound to get entry to plenty of Tour events the following season. (And all that may come with those starts.)

In short — play poorly in 2026, you’re still getting 12 to 18 starts in 2027. Last year’s No. 130, Seamus Power, has made 18 starts this season. The penalty for his not playing well in 2025 was mostly non-existent because the Tour’s current relegation is not that harsh. (I understand Power may feel differently.) Moving forward, No. 130 will see his options for entering big events narrow into a predictable season-long race on the Challenger Series, for much less money than the players on the Championship Series. All of which emphasizes the importance of finishing top 90. Finishing as Mr. 91 is going to hurt. 

To the journeyman apologists out there, that is the direction the Tour is going. It hasn’t happened in one fell swoop. It’s actually taken a long time. Any players eventually on the outside will have had their chances. So we’ll dive into the bubble watch that isn’t a bubble quite yet. This is a preview bubble, a look at the cutoff you’ll really need to pay attention to a year from now. Good news for all involved: they still have a lot of golf before next August.

Players 87 through 90 are as follows: John Parry, Kevin Roy, Tony Finau, Chandler Phillips

The most recognizable name here is obvious: Finau. The 6-time winner and three-time Ryder Cupper has lost his way a bit, but has also lingered in the standings thanks in large part to sponsor’s invites he received to Signature Events. If a player similarly squeaks in to the top 90 next year because of sponsor invites, others will be very upset. 

Players 91 through 94 we’ll define as ‘maybe-one-top-20-away’: Andrew Novak, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Zach Bauchou, Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen 

Would you be upset at the Tour losing any of these names for a season as they grind on the Challenger Series? Outside of friends and family, probably not. That’s kind of the point. 

Players 95 through 99 we’ll call ‘booked-with-a-top-10’: Ben Kohles, Lucas Glover, Doug Ghim, Taylor Moore, Max Greyserman

A couple noteworthy ones here, starting with Glover, the ageless wonder who seems not only hellbent on earning his spot on the Championship Series, but also holding court on the Tour’s Policy Board and helping determine the Tour’s governance as well. The other would be Greyserman, who at the beginning of 2025 was looking like a top 20 pro. Recently, he’s scraped it around at a very average level. There’s nothing wrong with that, but the Tour used to accept and even reward average. It really isn’t going to anymore. 

Notables beyond 100, aka ‘need-a-huge-week’ players: Rasmus Hojgaard (103), Emiliano Grillo (104), Michael Brennan (105), Billy Horschel (107)

Four very different players who have all flirted with contention throughout the year. But if there’s proof of one thing in the FedEx Cup system, it’s that contention isn’t enough. Wins matter. Solo seconds matter. Anything outside that, as Brennan witnessed Sunday, could be the difference for future bubble boys on playing for $20 million a bunch, or playing for $4 million. 

Players 110 or worse: the ‘second-place-or-better’ squad: We’re hand-picking names here, but Mark Hubbard, Zac Blair, Joel Dahmen, Mackenzie Hughes, Beau Hossler, Chris Kirk, Gordon Sargent, Haotong Li, Erik Van Rooyen — these gents have all had flashes, no doubt. But there hasn’t been enough flashes, or simply not enough made cuts, to be in position to crack the top 90. In 12 months, they’d be needing a Hail-Mary week to retain any starts at the top level.