Allan government ministers have been warned One Nation is on the march in Melbourne’s outer suburbs, but that Opposition Leader Jess Wilson remains Labor’s key opponent in a briefing on the party’s battle plan for a three-way contest in November.
Cabinet was told last week that while Labor internal research had identified 16 Coalition seats in play to Pauline Hanson’s party, Wilson was still in a strong position to be the state’s next premier, requiring the party to fight on both fronts.
On current trends, November’s state election is shaping up to be the first genuine three-way fight in modern Australian history. The Age’s latest Resolve Political Monitor, published earlier this month, had Labor and the Coalition tied on a primary vote of 26 per cent, with One Nation on 24 per cent.
At a cabinet retreat on Friday, Victorian Labor secretary Steve Staikos and senior assistant secretary Jett Fogarty briefed ministers on the state of play using research collected from the start of June, two sources aware of the meeting told The Age, speaking anonymously to detail a confidential briefing.
That research identified One Nation as a major problem for both sides of politics across the state and outlined challenges for Labor in Melbourne’s outer suburban north-west and south-east, as well as Victoria’s regional centres.
Ministers were also shown a list of 16 Liberal and National seats the party’s campaign strategists believe are under threat from One Nation, most of them located outside Melbourne.
In the regions, five National seats were listed as likely One Nation wins – according to Labor’s internal polling – including Nationals leader Danny O’Brien’s electorate of Gippsland South as well as Murray Plains and Gippsland East, where long-serving MPs are retiring.
All three of those seats are currently on margins above 15 per cent.
Shepparton, Benambra and Lowan were reported to be leaning orange alongside Berwick, the electorate of former opposition leader Brad Battin.
Other seats described as coin flips between the Liberals and One Nation were Narracan, Warrandyte, Eildon and Rowville.
Labor and Coalition figures agree the rise of One Nation will have significant consequences in the state election but have differing views about which party will be worse off.
Liberal and National strategists believe they can pick up preferences from both One Nation supporters and their detractors, similar to the results in the Nepean byelection, which would propel the Coalition to victory in individual seats as long as their candidates are in the final two after preferences are counted.
Labor figures, including Premier Jacinta Allan, have begun to acknowledge their working-class base is drifting to Hanson’s party, but continue to insist the Coalition will lose the most voters and its only pathway to government is to form a coalition with One Nation.
Despite this, cabinet ministers were told that Wilson remained their key rival ahead of November.
“Jess Wilson is our primary opponent but it is clear she cannot win government without One Nation,” a source said Staikos told the room. “We face a challenging election, but there is a path to victory.”
Another source with knowledge of the meeting said Wilson was still “very much in the hunt”.
“We are going to have to run a campaign against her but we are also going to have to run a campaign against One Nation,” they said.
Ministers were also advised on lessons gathered overseas over the past decade on how to combat similar movements, such as Donald Trump’s “Make America Great Again” in the US, without driving voters frustrated with major parties towards anti-establishment alternatives.
This included focusing on an economic message rather than labelling One Nation supporters as racist.
In 2016, Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton labelled Trump’s supporters as a “basket of deplorables” and said half of them were “racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic, Islamophobic”.
Clinton later admitted this speech contributed to her election loss, with the “deplorables” term used as a badge of honour by Trump supporters railing against perceived political elites.
A Liberal source, speaking anonymously to detail internal deliberations, said the briefing showed Labor had realised that the Coalition was threatening their seats, not just One Nation.
They said Deputy Premier Ben Carroll’s seat of Niddrie and retiring former health minister Mary-Anne Thomas’ Macedon electorate had been identified as fertile ground for the Coalition. The Liberal Party is yet to preselect a candidate for Niddrie, in Melbourne’s north-west.
Wilson on Sunday launched her “fresh start tour”, where she is promising to visit all 88 lower house electorates in Victoria over 35 days.
When asked about the rise of One Nation and a possible preference deal, she has repeatedly said the “only way to change the government is to vote Liberal or Nationals”.
“I’ve been out and about for months on end now, and I have people come up to me saying they are desperate for a change in this state,” Wilson said on Sunday.
O’Brien agreed Victorians were making it clear they wanted a change in November.
“The only way to change the government and see the back of Jacinta Allan is to vote Nationals and Liberals to ensure regional Victoria gets its fair share and all Victorians get a fresh start,” he said.
Labor is pushing ahead with its campaign now that leadership rumblings against Allan have faded.
After being put on notice by Trades Hall secretary Luke Hilakari, Labor MPs and candidates have also started scarmbling to increase their doorknocking and phone call efforts now that the Victorian parliament has started a six-week winter break.
Hilakari last week emailed candidates and MPs telling them to “start campaigning or start packing” after receiving data that showed 23 had logged zero campaign efforts, including phone calls or door knocks, in a fortnight.
A Labor source, speaking on condition of anonymity, said local party members and unions had been inundated with requests from MPs to assist with doorknocking efforts over the next month.
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Disclaimer : This story is auto aggregated by a computer programme and has not been created or edited by DOWNTHENEWS. Publisher: www.smh.com.au
