‘Ticks a lot of boxes’: Why Michelle Payne is tipping this horse to conquer all in the Melbourne Cup

It takes a special kind of horse to win a Melbourne Cup. It also takes a combination of good planning and good luck.

In our comprehensive runner-by-runner guide, 2015 Melbourne Cup winning-jockey Michelle Payne and The Age racing writer Danny Russell cast an eye over the field, taking into variables such as lead-up form, weights and barriers.

The horses are named in order of their saddle cloth numbers – from top weight down to bottom weight.

Ciaron Maher has seven runners, while Irish trainer Joseph O’Brien has five.

1. Sons And Lovers (GB)

Barrier: 3
6yoG (gelding) 57.5kg
Trainer: Joseph O’Brien. Jockey: Dylan Browne McMonagle
Career: 23: 6-2-6 Last start: Second of 11 G3 Kilternan Stakes Leopardstown

Michelle Payne says: The stable is very confident. He sounds like he’s thrived since he’s been here, and I think the barrier certainly brings him right into contention.

Russell says: A dual group 2 winner from Ireland who sounds more like a midday soapie than a racehorse. That being said, in our view he has more chance of winning an Emmy than the Melbourne Cup, considering he has to lug 57.5 kilograms to victory first-up in Australia.

2. Trustyourinstinct (IRE)

Barrier: 18
7yoG 57kg
Trainer: Joseph O’Brien. Jockey: James McDonald
Career: 30: 9-7-4 Last start: 4th of 7 G1 Irish St Leger 2816m

Payne says: For me, he is the pick of Joseph O’Brien’s runners. The barrier is not ideal, but he can overcome that wide gate if we have a firm track. He won’t be as well suited if the rain comes.

Russell says: If you believe in the saying, ‘follow the money’, this is the horse for you. He’s owned by Irish billionaire JP McManus, who used to be a bookmaker. That’s a good lead right there. He is also a group 2 winner with a serious chance. Watch to see if McManus bets up big on Cup eve. Top five hope.

3. Knight’s Choice

Barrier: 2
7yoG 56.5kg
Trainer: John Symons and Sheila Laxon. Jockey: Robbie Dolan
Career: 31: 6-3-3 Last start: 14th of 18 G1 Caulfield Cup 2400m

Payne says: Needs a firm track. But from a good barrier, who knows if the 2024 winner can cause another upset? He is going well enough if you look at his Caulfield run two starts back in the Herbert Power.

Russell says: The shock 2024 winner was robbed of the chance to defend his crown in 2025 because of the equine equivalent of a lockdown. Not COVID-19, but strangles – a contagious bacterial disease – that was detected at Macedon Lodge on the eve of last year’s spring. Great run in the Herbert Power two starts back, might have copped interference in Caulfield Cup. Can’t win.

4. Middle Earth (GB)

Barrier: 1
7yoG 56.5kg
Trainer: Ciaron Maher. Jockey: Mark Zahra
Career: 26: 6-2-3 Last start: Eighth of 12 G1 Cox Plate 2040m

Payne says: He sounds like he is the best chance of the Ciaron Maher runners. Ran third last year and is going just as well. A bit more weight, but drawn barrier one, proven at two miles and if he gets luck in running, he’ll figure in the finish.

Russell says: If this galloper’s name has been plucked from J.R.R. Tolkien mythology, then surely his trainer, Ciaron Maher, qualifies as a modern-day wizard. Maher is on fire and has given this fellow the old-fashioned Cup preparation.

Bart Cummings’ rule was 10 kilometres – he has racked up 9.94km in five lead-up races. He looked good late in the Cox Plate. A winning chance.

5. Vauban (FRA)

Barrier: 22
9yoG 56.5kg
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott. Jockey: Jordan Childs
Career: 33: 10-5-6 Last start: Ninth of 13 G3 Geelong Cup 2400m

Payne says: I love this horse. Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott have taken a different approach this year. Coming in fresh off one run, so who knows? I can’t rule him out.

Russell says: The veteran is lining up for his fourth Melbourne Cup – the first two for Irish trainer Willie Mullins before he was sold to Australian connections to be trained by Waterhouse and Bott. He finished sixth last year, but might not be going as well. Although he was first-up in the Geelong Cup, so hard to tell.

6. Enfjaar (IRE)

Barrier: 8
7yoG 56kg
Trainer: Roger Varian. Jockey: Ray Dawson
Career: 17: 5-2-3 Last start: Third of 18 G1 Caulfield Cup 2400m

Payne says: He looks good in a lot of ways. His run in the Caulfield Cup was excellent, and that has to put him in with a chance. Yet to run beyond 2400m, so the distance is a query.

Russell says: Best of internationals in the Caulfield Cup, and in my view, internationals need an impressive lead-up run in Australia if they are to win the Melbourne Cup. He ticks that box. And for those struggling to pronounce his name, Google says Enfjaar means “burst” in Arabic. Top 10.

7. Royal Supremacy (IRE)

Barrier: 21
6yoG 56kg
Trainer: Ciaron Maher. Jockey: Ben Allen
Career: 22: 7-3-4 Last start: 15th of 18 G1 Caulfield Cup 2400m

Payne says: I think he has to improve. Didn’t have the best of runs in the Caulfield Cup, but I think I’d be leaning towards others, especially from the wide barrier.

Russell says: One of Ciaron Maher’s seven runners, but a lesser chance. Cooked in the Caulfield Cup by a head-scratching ride from visiting hoop Jamie Spencer, he bolted to the front, whacked on the handbrakes and then looked confused when the pressure went back on from the 800m. He was flying before that. Outside the top 10.

8. Wine Dark Sea (GB)

Barrier: 23
5yoG 56kg
Trainer: Harry Charlton. Jockey: Damian Lane
Career: 11: 4-2-0
Last start: 11th of 18 G1 Caulfield Cup 2400m

Payne says: He also had excuses in the Caulfield Cup. There was an air of confidence about this horse leading into that race, so he may be able to turn his form around.

Russell says: Purchased abroad by Australian Bloodstock, who have won the Cup with Protectionist and Gold Trip, and was a massive spruik horse leading into the Caulfield Cup. Sadly for punters, he didn’t live up to expectations. Needs a gigantic turnaround.

9. Asterix (NZ)

Barrier: 6
8yoG 55kg
Trainer: Chris Waller. Jockey: Jye McNeil
Career: 33: 8-1-2 Last start: 12th of 18 G1 Caulfield Cup 2400m

Payne says: I think others are going better. He has run two miles in New Zealand and is by Tavistock, so a wet track would bring him into contention.

Russell says: Caught up in the backwash of the tragic fall in the Caulfield Cup. A group 1-winning stayer from New Zealand owned by former Kiwi cricket great Mark Greatbatch and now in the Chris Waller barn. An outsider, but any rain will help.

10. Goodie Two Shoes (IRE)

Barrier: 19
8yoM (mare) 55kg
Trainer: Joseph O’Brien. Jockey: Wayne Lordan
Career: 31: 14-2-7 Last start: Tenth of 11 G3 Kilternan Stakes 2414m

Payne says: She was excellent last year. She has to carry more weight this year, and did have a disappointing run last start, but this stable has to be respected so that can be overlooked.

Russell says: A former hurdler who ran a surprise second in the Melbourne Cup last year. Trained by Joseph O’Brien, who has already won the race twice, and owned by Irish billionaire JP McManus. Slightly disappointing last start, but that might have been a pipe opener. Top 10 finish.

11. Juja Kibo (IRE)

Barrier: 14
6yoG 55kg
Trainer: Ciaron Maher. Jockey: Sam Clipperton
Career: 20: 6-3-6 Last start: First of 16 G2 MV Gold Cup 2500m

Payne says: A beautiful confidence-boosting lead-in run to this year’s Melbourne Cup when he won the Moonee Valley Gold Cup. Having said that, might not be good enough to win, so I’m leaning towards others.

Russell says: In hot form, having won its past two starts, including a big win in the group 2 Metropolitan at Randwick on October 3.

Didn’t make the cut for the Caulfield Cup, but many believed he could have won the race. Copped a 1.5kg for the MV Gold Cup win. Still think he brings the B-grade form. Top 10.

12. Hopewell Rock (IRE)

Barrier: 15
5yoG 54.5kg
Trainer: George Boughey. Jockey: Zac Lloyd
Career: 10: 3-3-2 Last start: Second of 22 Ebor Handicap 2787m

Payne says: He’s my top selection. He helps himself. He puts himself into a reasonable position, puts himself to sleep, and has a nice turn of foot. Plus, he’s only carrying 54.5kg. I think he ticks a lot of boxes.

Russell says: Another international with decent credentials, but will have to defy history to win this year’s Cup. No runner has come out of York’s Ebor Handicap and saluted on the first Tuesday in November. But a few have been close – Heartbreak City ran second in 2017, while Purple Moon was a runner-up in 2007.

13. Onesmoothoperator (US)

Barrier: 13
9yoG 54.5kg
Trainer: Tim Fitzsimmons. Jockey: Declan Bates
Career: 51: 6-11-6 Last start: 11th of 13 G3 Geelong Cup 2400m

Payne says: I think he looked talented last year, but I’m just not sure he’s going as well this year.

Russell says: Has gone off the boil. The veteran started second favourite and ran 12th in the 2024 Melbourne Cup after winning the Geelong Cup in the lead-up. Won the MV Gold Cup last year before finishing 16th in the Cup. Not going as well this year. Will be grateful they pay back to last.

14. Soul Of Spain (IRE)

Barrier: 5
6yoG 54.5kg
Trainer: Chris Waller. Jockey: Tommy Berry
Career: 26: 5-5-6 Last start: Eight of 18 G1 Caulfield Cup 2400m

Payne says: He’s very fit and has had a lot of racing. Master trainer in Chris Waller, but he may struggle to beat some of these horses.

Russell says: Ran second in the Sydney Cup over 3200m but has been slightly disappointing at his past two starts, including a seventh in The Metropolitan. Might have been ridden upside down in the Caulfield Cup. Needs to improve.

15. Zahrann (IRE)

Barrier: 11
5yoH 54.5kg
Trainer: Ciaron Maher. Jockey: Ben Melham
Career: 12: 4-2-1 Last start: Sixth of 18 G1 Caulfield Cup 2400m

Payne says: The Maher team are saying he’s the forgotten horse, so you have to respect their opinion. A good, honest run in the Caulfield Cup, and blinkers on. He’s definitely in with some sort of chance.

Russell says: This year’s smoky, considering he started second favourite in the Caulfield Cup and was clearly disadvantaged after being caught up in the tragic mid-race fall. Has not raced over 2400m, but being Irish-bred should relish the two miles. Top five chance.

16. So You Are

Barrier: 7
5yoG 54kg
Trainer: Bjorn Baker. Jockey: Rachel King
Career: 28: 8-6-6 Last start: First of 13 G3 Bendigo Cup 2400m

Payne says: He was good winning the Bendigo Cup. He’s a good, honest galloper who will put himself into a good position from barrier seven. Just a question of whether he’s got the class.

Russell says: Jumped into the field after a being handed a 1kg penalty for an impressive win in Wednesday’s Bendigo Cup. He is a horse in form, having won four staying races on the trot and has a top trainer-jockey combination. Since March, he has started 13 times and travelled 21.8km. That’s one fit horse. A top-five chance.

17. Future History (GB)

Barrier: 12
9yoG 53.5kg
Trainer: Gregory Hickman. Jockey: Jamie Melham
Career: 47: 10-6-6 Last start: Ninth of 16 G2 MV Gold Cup 2500m

Payne says: I actually tipped this horse last year, and he had no luck at all. He’s had a change of trainer and is another year older, but he certainly has the talent. Nice to see Jamie Melham with the ride. She certainly knows how to win the Cup.

Russell says: He jumps into the field after the scratching of Stinger Glass on Friday, giving last year’s winning jockey Jamie Melham a chance to defend her crown. Until then, she did not have a ride. He was caught three wide in the Gold Cup, so that’s a forgive run, but it’s a stretch to say he can finish top 10.

18. James J Braddock (GB)

Barrier: 24
4yoH 53.5kg
Trainer: Joseph O’Brien. Jockey: Craig Williams
Career: 8: 2-1-2 Last start: 6th of 11 G3 Kilternan Stakes 2414m

Payne says: Sounds like a very exciting horse with a well-connected ownership group. I’m sure they’ll be disappointed with barrier 24, but the stable have not brought him out here for fun. Have to give him a good chance.

Russell says: Another northern hemisphere three-year-old bought by a big group of Aussies. Three things to consider here: He is still trained by O’Brien. Tick. He was sourced by big Melbourne buyer Ozzie Kheir. Tick. Craig Williams sought the ride. Double tick. He is a group 3 winner, lightly raced, and will carry a light weight. First-up in Australia the only concern. A first-four pick.

19. Kizlyar (IRE)

Barrier: 20
5yoG 53.5kg
Trainer: Joseph O’Brien Jockey: Beau Mertens
Career: 11: 3-2-2 Last start: 11th of 16 G2 MV Gold Cup 2500m

Payne says: There was a bit of confidence before his last run in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup, but he didn’t get a strong enough tempo to suit. He’s a strong stayer and I think he’ll be ridden to use that strength on Tuesday. Look for improvement with a light weight.

Russell says: Looked like he was going to bowl to the front and set a free-rolling European-style tempo in the MV Gold Cup before jockey Ben Melham surprisingly took a sit. He was left flat-footed in the sprint home but will get a suitable hot pace in the Cup, and will relish 3200m. Top 10 chance.

20. Point Of Law (GB)

Barrier: 9
4yoH 53kg
Trainer: Ciaron Maher. Jockey: Ethan Brown
Career: 5: 3-1-0 Last start: First of 13 G3 Geelong Cup 2400m

Payne says: Sounds like he’s got some behavioral issues, which is not ideal. But if he can put it all together, he looks like he’ll run a strong 3200m. Huge win in the Geelong Cup when he set the tempo. We have to see if he can keep it together on the big day. It’s going to be an amazing effort if he wins a Melbourne Cup in his first preparation.

Russell says: Point to the winner’s circle more like it. This striking specimen’s Geelong Cup victory was the greatest Melbourne Cup audition since Dunaden did the Geelong-Melbourne double in 2011. A northern hemisphere three-year-old who supposedly cost his Aussie owners $3.5 million, and might be worth every cent. Maher did caution about him being inexperienced. Top three.

21. Strictly Business

Barrier: 4
4yoM 53kg
Trainer: Thomas Carberry. Jockey: Dean Yendall
Career: 11: 2-2-0 Last start: 16th of 16 G2 MV Gold Cup 2500m

Payne says: Last year’s Oaks winner, but she really needs to improve on her recent runs. Still, if you’re in it, you’ve got a chance.

Russell says: One of the stories of last spring when she won the VRC Oaks for a big group of Irish expats and small-time Ballarat trainer Carberry. Ballarat’s Miners Rest Tavern has never been the same since. But she has struggled to make the transition from three-year-old to open company.

Not going well enough.

22. Mr Monaco (GB)

Barrier: 16
6yoG 52.5kg
Trainer: Ciaron Maher. Jockey: Jabez Johnstone
Career: 20: 6-2-2 Last start: Third of 16 G2 Moonee Valley Gold Cup 2500m

Payne says: He looks a lovely staying-type of a horse. He was great in the lead-up race behind his stablemate Juja Kibo and does everything to help himself. I’m just not sure he’s got the class of the others.

Russell says: Flopped in this year’s Sydney Cup despite starting second favourite, which is a bit of a concern. Qualified for the race by winning the group 3 Bart Cummings (2500m) on a heavy Flemington track on October 3. Maybe a rung below the top-liners, but any rain will help.

23. Zakouma

Barrier: 10
6yoG 52kg
Trainer: Grahame Begg. Jockey: William Pike
Career: 18: 5-2-1 Last start: 11th of 11 G2 Crystal Mile 1600m

Payne says: They have targeted this race from a long way out. They’ve not been too worried about his lead-up runs, focusing instead on the Cup. Great trainer in Grahame Begg and an inform rider in Willie Pike. Can’t be ruled out.

Russell says: Booked a golden ticket in May by winning the Andrew Ramsden Stakes (2800m). That form looks like an egg-and-spoon race compared to other Cup form lines. But Begg is an astute old-school trainer and jockey-of-the-moment Willie Pike takes the ride.

Last start was merely a warm-up lap.

24. Shockletz (NZ)

Barrier: 17
5yoM 51kg
Trainer: Ciaron Maher. Jockey: Harry Coffey
Career: 20: 7-3-1 Last start: Second of 15 G3 Tesio Stakes 2040m

Payne says: She is a very exciting prospect with just 51kg, and I really hope Harry Coffey can ride her. I don’t think barrier 17 matters too much. She’s been in good form leading into this race, and is a good lightweight chance.

Russell says: Another golden ticket winner, having saluted in the group 3 Archer Stakes at Flemington in September, but looms as a contender. Unfortunately, jockey Harry Coffey is in serious doubt for the ride after his fall on Derby Day. This horse dusted off the cobwebs with a strong second in the group 3 Tessio Stakes on Cox Plate day.