Tips and race-by-race guide for Muswellbrook on Monday

Track good 4 and rail out 2m from 1200m to 300m; cut/away applies.

Race 1

3. Fierceness is a progressive metropolitan three-year-old that was stiff not to win when getting home late first-up at Mudgee. Drawn to get cover and suited over more ground with plenty of scope for improvement. The one to beat. 5. Incremental looks well placed to run a big race on debut for the Annabel and Rob Archibald stable from a low draw behind two improving trials. Watch the betting closely on the former’s stablemate 8. Rolling Home the only two-year-old suited on firmer going, and coming off an even debut at big odds against stronger at Warwick Farm. 1. Fined For Speeding is working towards a breakthrough win only missing narrowly here second-up when heavily backed from $3.70 into $2.70. Gap to the rest.
How to play it: Fierceness to win.

Race 2

7. Sunsprite is an emerging and lightly filly by hot sire The Autumn Sun from the Archibald yard set to go around at a very short price. Hit the line late to miss narrowly in a deeper Class 1 when resuming and only needs a clear run from the turn over a longer trip to claim a second win at her fourth start. 6. On Any Tuesday is an improver and well placed to grab the Quinella third-up over further. 1. Brannum can run a race fourth-up, while 4. Majestic Roca, deep into the prep and from the inside draw, adds value into trifecta and first four plays.
How to play it: Sunsprite to win.

Race 3

4. Starverna, a Scone-based filly by Star Turn, emerges as the one to beat on debut. Has been good through the line in two trials up to this distance.1. Bundoran has been in and around the money all prep, but weighted to her best. 3. Moonlight Odyssey is over the odds second-up with blinkers coming off. At bigger odds, 7. Nulkaba Star, back a shade in class fourth-up, and 9. Supido Star, resuming with key gear changes off a winning trial, are the best of the rest.
How to play it: Starverna to win.

Race 4

4. Magurtz is a lightly raced three-year-old primed to resume for a second prep with a bang. Swept home to win here at his third start running a half second quicker that day for the 1280m than the Class 3 BM 66 winner, before spelling. Tuned up with a solid trial at this track a fortnight ago, and important gear changes have been made. 6. Arapawa is a big threat second-up after charging late to miss by a nose here when resuming. His only win so far from six starts came at this course. 1. Hanuman is on the quick back-up after putting an average maiden field to the sword at Wellington 10 days ago. Has tactical speed, but under the odds from a wider draw here in a handicap race after a string of runs at set weights. 3. Ellofadude is trained on the track and returns for only her second prep having bolted in a token three-horse trial. Gap to the rest.
How to play it: Magurtz to win.

Race 5

5. Billabong is a lightly raced filly from the Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott stable ideally placed to break through second-up. Disappointed from the front when dropping out fresh at Wyong on a very shifty surface, but back on firmer ground over further, she can turn things around immediately. 12. Tigleta is a hard-fit metro filly placed three times at provincial level from her last five and drawn to get plenty of cover off speed. 8. Oakfield Nevada is an Ole Kirk filly on debut for the Kris Lees yard behind two progressive trials, but has to overcome the outside barrier. 6. Blue Poles, a well-bred filly by Cracksman on debut for the Archibald stable, and at bigger odds 11. Pressiaire, which drew the fence for her second start and coming through the same formline as the top selection, can both run into the minor money.
How to play it: Billabong to win.

Race 6

7. King Larry is locally trained and tracking nicely to strike third-up off a six-week freshen. Ridden quiet in the deeper Skellatar Sprint Final here and produced his best work late to get within two lengths of a smart winner that had also claimed the Skellatar Prelude. That form has been further boosted with the second horse from the Final then bolting in a good quality trial at Scone. 6. Silencio Porfavor hasn’t been far away in generally deeper company this prep and looks well treated down on the limit weight. 8. Whil To Win is a shade over the odds third-up from a softer trailing draw, despite rising in class. 1. Saratoga Power, back in trip fourth-up, and 2. Bomarea, off a five week freshen-up and handy trial, are both each-way value.
How to play it: King Larry to win.

Race 7

2. Speedy Henry is bursting to win a fourth race at just his 13th start deep into the campaign. Flew home late in a BM 64 for the boys at Gosford and even better suited here on a bigger track and jumping from a lower draw. 4. Flamboyant Lad is also consistent enough and very fit after a long prep, and afforded weight relief after the jockey’s claim. 5. Missile Magnate, with blinkers added fourth-up; 6. Nation Changing, fourth-up from a low draw; and 10. Feared, shooting for a third win from his last four, can all add value into the exotics.
How to play it: Speedy Henry to win.

Race 8

3. Villa Castina is an improving metro filly that can peak third-up back at country level in likely the most open race on the card. Lesser-rated jockey takes over, but she looks well placed at the weights here after the 2kg claim and suited back 100m in distance. 1. Jason Darren loves to roll forward, and despite carrying a big weight, can give this a shake if that pattern is in play. 4. Chistota is a lightly raced and improving five-year-old coming off a narrow maiden win at his fourth start. 10. Sugarfire is also in the mix third-up from the inside draw, and staying in the grade. 2. Smoke On The Water, dropping in class with gear changes, and 8. All Kirked Up, improving second-up, head the rest.
How to play it: Villa Castina to win.

Best bets

Race 1: 3. Fierceness
Race 7: 2. Speedy Henry

Best value

Race 4: 4. Magurtz