Trump pivots to economic squeeze of ‘entrenched’ Iran regime

Facing a shortfall of necessary munitions and wary of continuing an unpopular war, Trump and his top officials are returning to a familiar playbook: relying on a steady increase in economic sanctions and a naval blockade to stifle Iran’s oil exports.

The renewed emphasis on economic pain — it was dubbed “Maximum Pressure” in Trump’s first term — is a marked pivot for an administration that has repeatedly threatened a stepped up military campaign after nearly six months of war against Tehran. 

While the approach failed to bring about the result President Donald Trump wanted before 2020, he and his team argue it will this time around.

“Operation Economic Fury, led by Secretary Scott Bessent, is devastating the Iranian economy,” US Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz told Fox News on Aug. 10. He said the country would “absorb the bombings” but that Iranians were more afraid of Bessent than Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.

Trump made a similar comment on Sunday to Axios, saying he is “low-keying it” with Iran. “We are just watching Iran with its huge inflation and the fact they have no money.” Bessent hit a similar theme weeks before on Fox, saying “the government is causing the people to suffer, and we’re going to keep pressing.”

That echoes an argument put forward by some analysts who argue that the regime is teetering toward economic collapse while having fewer options to evade sanctions via other countries such as the United Arab Emirates. 

“As jurisdictions once exploited for sanctions evasion, including the UAE, become way less hospitable to Iranian illicit finance and trade, and global markets reduce their dependence on Iranian commodities, existing US sanctions become far more potent,” said Miad Maleki, a former US Treasury sanctions official who is now a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

Iran’s economy has already taken a significant hit from the war, with much of its industrial capacity destroyed and crude exports severely curtailed by the US blockade. Central bank data shows year-on-year inflation recently reached 77%.

The currency, meanwhile, has fallen more than 10% from its prewar level, adding to the economic pressure on Iranians. A depreciation of the rial sparked violent nationwide protests at the start of the year, leading to a crackdown by authorities that killed thousands of people. There have been no signs of the anti-government demonstrations resuming.

One counterargument to the policy of applying economic pressure is that the US has been sanctioning Iran, like a handful of other nations, for decades without sparking meaningful political change. Other examples include North Korea and Cuba — another one of Trump’s recent targets.

The US has added some 2,200 sanctions on Tehran since Trump began piling on new designations in 2018, according to Jeremy Paner, a partner at Hughes Hubbard & Reed, who tracks designations on Iran’s oil and petrochemical sectors. Around 350 of those have been part of Bessent’s Economic Fury push.

That’s so far failed to force Tehran to bend on its nuclear program or release its chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz, or much else.

“The regime is entrenched,” said David Tannenbaum, a director at Blackstone Compliance Services, a consulting firm focused on sanctions. Even though sanctions are worthwhile because they choke off resources to the regime, he added, “I don’t think that it’s going to change the regime. I don’t think it’s going to convince them to give up their nuclear program.”

Asked for comment on the new approach, a White House official said the sanctions and naval blockade have left Iran completely broke and that Trump has many levers he can pull in the coming months. The official didn’t give more detail of what Trump may have in mind. 

The US can still make it harder for Tehran to sell its oil or get the proceeds home. But each step up the sanctions ladder brings greater diplomatic costs — and diminishing certainty that additional economic damage will translate into political concessions.

One option to tighten the screws could be to hit China and India, the two biggest buyers of Iranian oil — with China being responsible for over 90% of oil exports from Tehran. Penalties on entities that facilitate these purchases would directly reduce Iran’s oil income. 

Read More: US Reaches Limit of Sanctions Power in Targeting Iran’s Economy

The US has already sanctioned some Chinese teapot refineries and firms since the conflict with Iran, but has so far stopped short of targeting the major Chinese banks that finance the trade.

Sanctions on large Chinese financial institutions could reduce Iran’s oil income, but they would also risk opening another front with Beijing ahead of a planned September meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.

“If we look to deploy a more aggressive strategy, the considerations won’t be just bilateral — they will become multilateral,” said Jess Hoversen, a former OFAC official who is now chief economist at ​Column, a digital platform bank.

Other possible targets include exchange houses in countries like the United Arab Emirates that help Iran repatriate funds. Once Iran makes its oil sales, it still needs exchange houses and intermediaries to convert payments — often received in Chinese yuan — into currencies Tehran can actually use. Still, that move alone is unlikely to make a significant difference.  

“Will that get Iran to capitulate?” Paner said. “Likely not on its own.”

(Updates with Iranian economic data in ninth paragraph.)