Donald Trump is projected to reclaim the presidency in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, potentially becoming the first Republican in two decades to win the popular vote. As results continue to roll in, Trump has secured crucial victories in key swing states, including North Carolina and Georgia, significantly narrowing the path for Democratic candidate Vice President Kamala Harris.
With approximately 51% of the popular vote—over 71.7 million votes—Trump’s performance mirrors that of George W. Bush, who last achieved this feat in 2004. In that election, Bush received 62 million votes and 286 electoral votes, defeating Democratic nominee John Kerry, who garnered 59 million votes and 251 electoral votes.
Historically, the past two decades have seen Democrats dominate the popular vote. Barack Obama recorded the largest victory in 2008 with 69.5 million votes (52.9%) and 365 electoral votes, while his second term in 2012 saw him win with 51.1% of the popular vote and 332 electoral votes. In contrast, Trump won the presidency in 2016 with only 46.1% of the popular vote against Hillary Clinton’s 48.2%, while Joe Biden secured both a clear popular and electoral majority in 2020.
Trump’s early leads in swing states like North Carolina and Georgia have set a strong foundation for his campaign, but his most significant win came from Pennsylvania, a battleground state with 19 electoral votes that further solidifies his position as he approaches the necessary 270 electoral votes for victory.
As results unfolded on election night, Harris’s campaign faced mounting challenges despite strong performances in traditional Democratic strongholds. Her team indicated that their hopes now rested on winning back the “Blue Wall” states: Michigan and Wisconsin—both critical for any path to victory after losing Pennsylvania.
The atmosphere on election night was starkly divided; supporters at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort celebrated his mounting lead, while at Howard University in Washington D.C., excitement among Harris supporters dwindled as results favored Trump. Many had anticipated a historic victory for Harris as the first Black and South Asian woman to hold the presidency.
If confirmed, Trump’s victory would not only make him the oldest president at inauguration but also place him alongside Grover Cleveland as only the second president to serve non-consecutive terms in U.S. history. His return to office signifies a remarkable political comeback following his previous loss in 2020 amidst numerous controversies and challenges.
