Trump tells aides to prepare for lengthy Iran blockade

President Donald Trump has told his aides to prepare for an extended US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, The Wall Street Journal reported, as Washington looks to intensify economic pressure on Iran as the war enters its third month.

The president, in meetings with top aides, decided to continue putting pressure on Iran’s ability to export oil by stopping any vessel heading to or from the Islamic Republic’s ports, the newspaper reported on Tuesday night (US time). Trump determined that was a less risky option than resuming bombing or extracting America from the conflict entirely, the outlet said.

The decision suggests that the US could be moving into a lengthy period with the fighting largely halted, but no durable resolution to the conflict, and the status of maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz still uncertain. The US has been blocking ships going to and from Iranian ports to try to squeeze the country of oil revenue, while Iran keeps the strait closed to almost all other traffic.

Earlier on Tuesday, Trump said Iran had asked the US to lift the naval blockade while the two sides negotiate an end to the two-month war, which has upended global energy supplies.

Tehran wants the critical waterway for oil and gas shipments open “as soon as possible, as they try to figure out their leadership situation”, Trump said on Truth Social. Iran has said it’s in a “State of Collapse”, he added.

Iran has signalled it may be willing to accept an interim deal to reopen the strait in exchange for Washington ending the blockade, while postponing more complex negotiations over the country’s nuclear program. It insists on keeping some control over the strait, though, which Washington is unlikely to accept.

Trump rejected that offer, according to the WSJ, and told aides it showed that Iran wasn’t negotiating in good faith. Mediators in Pakistan expect Iran to submit a revised proposal to end the war in the next few days, CNN reported on Tuesday, citing sources close to the process.

Brent crude rose for a seventh straight session to settle above $US111 a barrel, as concern grew of a protracted peace process that could keep Hormuz shut for an indefinite period. The strategic strait, through which a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas flowed before the conflict began, remains at a virtual standstill.

The war’s ripple effects were underscored when the United Arab Emirates announced on Tuesday it was leaving OPEC, dealing a blow to the oil cartel and its leader, Saudi Arabia. The UAE, which can pump more crude than its OPEC quota allows, has long chafed at the group’s restrictions.

“The decision is taken at the right time in our view because it’s not going to hugely impact the market: the market is undersupplied,” UAE Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei said. Abu Dhabi believes the shortages caused by the war will require agility to respond to market demands, he said.

Peace hopes recede

The warring sides started a ceasefire about April 7, and hostilities may resume if they fail to agree to fresh talks, following an inconclusive first round in Pakistan in mid-April. Hopes of reviving peace efforts receded after Trump last weekend scrapped a visit by his special envoy, Steve Witkoff, and his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, to Pakistan. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi shuttled in and out of Islamabad twice during the weekend.

Since several senior Iranian political and military figures were killed in US-Israeli strikes, Iran no longer has a single, undisputed clerical arbiter at the pinnacle of power, which may be hardening Tehran’s negotiating stance.

The killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on the first day of the war, and the elevation of his wounded son, Mojtaba, to replace him as supreme leader, has handed more power to hardline commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Iranian officials and analysts say.

Iran’s offer to end the war is “better than what we thought they were going to submit”, Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Fox News. Yet, the White House has “questions about whether the person submitting it had the authority to submit”, he said, echoing previous US claims that Iran’s leaders are divided over their negotiating strategy.

The eventual negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program could end up bearing echoes of the country’s 2015 nuclear deal with the United States and other powers, which sharply curtailed Tehran’s nuclear program before Trump withdrew from that agreement in his first term.

Now, he faces domestic pressure to end a war for which he has given the American public shifting rationales. The president’s approval rating fell to the lowest level of his current term, as Americans increasingly soured on his handling of the cost of living and the unpopular war, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll. The poll showed 34 per cent of Americans approve of Trump’s performance, down from 36 per cent in the prior survey.

In the latest sign of strains with European allies, Trump said in a social media post that German Chancellor Friedrich Merz “doesn’t know what he’s talking about” regarding Iran. Merz said on Monday that Iran’s leadership was humiliating the US and that he did not see what exit strategy the Trump administration was pursuing.

But Britain’s King Charles told the US Congress on Tuesday that despite uncertainty and conflict in Europe and the Middle East, the UK and the US, “whatever our differences”, will always be staunch allies united in defending democracy.

Bloomberg, Reuters

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