US President Donald Trump’s Middle East war strategy increasingly looks knitted together from a collection of Dire Straits album titles: from Brothers in Arms, Communiqué and Money For Nothing to Love Over Gold.
But Trump’s ongoing bellicose frivolity over the Strait of Hormuz is consigning millions to starvation and wreaking further havoc on the world’s economy.
Trump’s latest escapade was to shoot his much-touted ceasefire with Iran in the foot by reintroducing a blockade of Iranian ports and announcing a 20 per cent tax on vessels hoping to transit the strait. He also ordered the resumption of bombing.
A shellshocked world has reacted warily. Crude oil prices jumped as the Strait of Hormuz blockade reignited tensions about supply. The ASX followed Wall Street down as the irony of Trump blowing up the ceasefire and imposing such a piratical toll hit home and the realisation dawned that only further confusion lies ahead.
The strait was open before the US and Israel joined forces to wage war on Iran, only to have that nation slam it shut. Some vessels got through during the ceasefire, with Iran charging $3 million for a fully loaded supertanker to transit the strait.
Trump’s threatened toll would jack that cost up to $69 million.
Trump jumped up and down when Iran announced its toll recently. Even by his own administration, he believes such fees violate international law. Only last month, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio rejected the notion of any country charging tolls to pass through international waterways. “No country is allowed to charge tolls or fees on an international waterway. That’s existing international law,” Rubio said.
Now Trump’s proposed extortionate 20 per cent toll further destroys any credibility that remained from his shambolic handling of the war he cannot seem to extricate himself from. The casus belli – Iran’s nuclear stockpile – has disappeared beneath the waves of the blocked strait as Iran realised the most powerful weapon in its arsenal was the waterway.
That said, Iran’s rhetoric and retaliations have only served to prolong the needless pain being felt in the region and across the world and ensured a humanitarian crisis is looming for some nations.
Much of the world’s fertiliser exports pass through the strait. With prices soaring and farmers cutting back, the United Nations World Food Program estimates millions in Somalia, Sri Lanka and Afghanistan are struggling to meet basic food needs and are being pushed into acute hunger thanks to the closure.
Staring at such tragedy, Trump’s decision to impose a significant premium for US naval power keeping the strait open is both infantile and, given his unreliability, unlikely to endure.
Trump has been struggling to find an exit from the war of his own creation. His bombs and failed diplomacy only underscore the absurdity of the US position. There will be better times, but not under this truculent and turbulent president.
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