DING DING DING — it happened again.
Undefeated Bilal Hasan entered UFC 334 as an absolutely monstrous favorite over Luis Gurule. The 25-year-old Hasan was expected to run over his older opponent, who entered the bout with just one victory in five previous trips to the Octagon. There was an obvious outcome that pretty much everybody predicted: Hasan — the tall and lanky prospect with shades of Sean O’Malley in his standup — should pick apart the unheralded Gurule.
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Public confidence was so high that Hasan swelled up to an 11-1 favorite.
As it turns out, styling on UFC fighters (even unsung ones) isn’t so easy. Gurule had already spent nearly an hour inside the Octagon accruing experience against solid opposition, and that valuable time cannot be purchased or undercut.
Just like that, it’s FRAUD CHECK time. Another big prospect suffers their first career defeat in record-setting circumstances, and countless parlays are busted in agonizing fashion for degenerates around the globe. It’s an increasingly frequent story, and this particular instance breaks down into a trio of components.
First and foremost: the odds are f—king insane nowadays. Prediction markets are pushing odds to outrageous numbers. Everyone has access to nearly unregulated sports betting, and thus “historic” odds are appearing every other month.
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10-0 is not that many wins. 25 years old is quite young. A young and green prospect should never be an 11-1 favorite over a more experienced opponent who, at a minimum, has proven himself capable of competing with established UFC talent. We’re not even talking about an Olympic gold medalist in a weak division like Gable Steveson — Hasan just has a nice highlight reel over names nobody reading this has ever heard of.
The unrealistic odds create massive hype … for better or worse. If Hasan was a simple 3-1 favorite, nobody would be foaming at the mouth to scream FRAUD CHECK.
The next leg of this upset is Hasan himself. Hopefully, the standout young talent learns some lessons here. Outside of the flashy kicks, he struggled to create meaningful offense with his hands. His step-in elbow was lovely but saw him taken down because he crashed forward too hard. More problematic, Hasan failed to create scrambles and movement from his back. Whether he uses the guard or wrestle-ups, Hasan has much to learn in escaping bottom position.
Here’s the rub: that’s okay! Prospects should have more to learn. MMA is supposed to be a sport in which losses and learning experiences are expected on the road to greatness. Like Joe Pyfer or Payton Talbott — fellow FRAUD CHECK victims of recent years — Hasan can still develop into a ranked contender and perhaps future champion.
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Hasan doesn’t suck because he lost a competitive fight at 25 years old. Let’s check back in on his career in two years!
Finally, Gurule absolutely deserves his flowers. “Grim” really fought well, bringing composure and a great game plan into the Octagon. He showed layers of technique and skill that were previously unknown. His consistent pressure, calf kicks, and shifting punches were just the ticket to track down his opponent. He caught kicks repeatedly and aggressively used those openings to either counter or wrestle.
Those are the textbook answers to a fleet-footed kicker, and Gurule applied the concepts well.
When Gurule began to wrestle, he impressed. Gurule timed his double leg well and finished the shot along the fence nicely. When on top, he locked down the position and still managed to land decent elbows. In the third, he attempted a lovely J-hook finish to the single leg (think round five of Islam Makhachev vs. Dustin Poirier) and then timed a massive body lock slam to ultimately win the fight. He’s clearly improving and just 15 fights into his own professional career.
A prospect with more to learn, a veteran coming into his own, and odds makers unshackled by reality: the modern FRAUD CHECK in a nutshell.
For complete UFC 334 results and play-by-play, click here.
Disclaimer : This story is auto aggregated by a computer programme and has not been created or edited by DOWNTHENEWS. Publisher: Sports.yahoo.com
