UMass didn’t make it easy, but it scored one of the biggest wins in program history last week in a 31-30 overtime thriller against Ball State.
Not only was it the first home victory for the Minutemen over an FBS school since 2021, but it also clinched the first five-win season for UMass since it joined the top flight in 2012.
Needing just one win to clinch its first-ever bowl bid, UMass travels to Toledo as a 14.5-point underdog on Wednesday night.
UMass vs. Toledo odds, prediction
No team in the MAC is surpassing expectations in the same fashion as UMass, but Toledo is also working on an impressive campaign.
Pegged for a step-back season after longtime head coach Jason Candle left for UConn, the Rockets find themselves in a familiar position — in the mix for a spot in the MAC Championship Game.
The Rockets are 7-2 overall and 4-1 in the conference, and they are big favorites to win their next two contests against UMass and Bowling Green.
At this point, anything short of a trip to Ford Field in December would be a disappointment for the Rockets.
But don’t expect UMass to roll over in this one. Toledo has one of the best statistical profiles in the entire Group of 6, but the Minutemen are built to hang around.
UMass ranks 35th in the country in yards per play allowed (5.0), and it is 23rd in yards allowed per pass. And the Minutemen may be catching this Rockets offense at the right time.
Toledo’s offense has been rolling for most of the season, but the Rockets just put forth a concerning effort against Sacramento State, one of the worst teams in FBS.
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Toledo gained just 290 yards, with 230 of them coming on the ground, and 4.4 yards per play against the Hornets in a 20-17 win. Toledo was a 25.5-point favorite in that contest.
I’ll trust this motivated UMass defense to be able to keep the lid on the Rockets at the Glass Bowl on Wednesday night.
The Play: UMass +14.5 (-110, DraftKings)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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