US and Israel are planning to hit Iran again once elections are over

Washington: The US and Israeli militaries have developed specific plans for renewed strikes against Iran after the American midterm elections, according to US officials and other people briefed on the deliberations.

As planning for a short but intensive operation progresses, the US and Israeli militaries have stepped up exercises, flying planes over Iraq to practice strike manoeuvres. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth met with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel this week to discuss new strikes, US officials said.

The targets would be likely to include Iran’s energy infrastructure, nuclear facilities, and missile and drone arsenal. Some officials say one more big round of attacks could push Iran’s economy over the brink and force the country to make diplomatic concessions after nearly eight months of conflict.

Still, there are reasons to be sceptical that a renewed war would be any more successful than the first phase of intense US-Israeli strikes between February and April. Those rounds of fighting drove up energy prices and inflation around the world, eroded security in the Middle East and severely strained the Pentagon’s supply of missile interceptors.

It is also far from certain President Donald Trump will approve fresh strikes. Repeatedly this year he has vetoed plans for a return to major combat operations, including this month when the US and Israeli militaries were nearly ready to attack.

All of the officials interviewed for this story spoke on condition of anonymity to candidly discuss military planning.

Iranian officials have promised to retaliate this time by expanding their targets beyond commercial ships and energy infrastructure in the region, to data centres and underwater internet cables.

They say the fighting will be neither quick nor limited.

While the United States is assembling a massive arsenal that will be fully in place by early November, diplomatic efforts have continued, as US negotiators use the potential return to war as leverage with Iran to make progress on their demands on its nuclear program and control over the Strait of Hormuz.

The United States will not have its full complement of military assets – including three aircraft carriers, thousands of Marines, fighter jets and Special Operations forces – in place until early November.

So far, however, Iran’s negotiators have been unwilling to make concessions on the nuclear program, insisting on deferring that issue until later in the talks. Some US planners are convinced that an intensive three-day campaign could cause enough economic damage to change the Iranian position.

But US officials have frequently predicted Iran’s collapse, and other Western officials noted that Iran’s government has so far weathered the pressures on its economy.

“At this point in the war, what is clear is that the conventional military campaign waged to date, and the current punishing economic sanctions and American naval blockade, have not brought the regime back to the negotiating table in a meaningful way,” said Dana Stroul, who served as the Pentagon’s top Middle East policy official in the Biden administration.

Neither Trump nor Netanyahu “has made a compelling case for how more war would change this strategic dilemma in an increasingly unstable and conflict-ridden region,” said Stroul, who is now with the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

Israel’s election on Tuesday could complicate the plans. If Netanyahu loses, he will become a caretaker prime minister, and it will be difficult for him to launch a war, experts say.

But some analysts believe that Netanyahu could leverage the prospect of an imminent joint US-Israel strike to pressure his rivals into joining a unity government to manage the war, which would extend his hold on power.

After Hamas attacked Israel on October 7, 2023, Netanyahu formed a unity government that brought some opposition members into a war Cabinet to help make national security decisions.

“He could use this to call for a broad emergency government, but he will face deep suspicion from his political rivals,” said Mazal Mualem, an Israeli political commentator and the author of a biography of Netanyahu.

“If Iran attacks, that’s one thing, but initiating an offensive strike would be extremely difficult for him.”

Officials say there is a small possibility that Trump could decide to begin a campaign this month, but there are many political reasons that he is likely to wait until after the US election – not least his own promise early this month not to strike before the vote.

The United States will not have its full complement of military assets – including three aircraft carriers, thousands of Marines, fighter jets and Special Operations forces – in place until early November. The US military prefers to conduct attacks under the cover of night, and there will be increasing hours of darkness over Iran early next month.

There are also concerns that the war could spiral into a larger conflict. On Wednesday, the US State Department ordered non-emergency government employees and their families to leave Saudi Arabia, as the Iran-backed Houthi militia continues to attack sites there.

A White House official said on Wednesday that the administration does not comment on military plans “that may or may not exist.” Trump, the official added, was keeping all options on the table to ensure that Iran cannot acquire nuclear weapons.

Some officials say the targeting will avoid refineries and oil infrastructure because Trump is eager to prevent even higher gas prices.

Both the US and Israel militaries are drafting plans for operations against Iran’s nuclear program, according to people briefed on the work. That could include an attack on Pickaxe Mountain, a deeply buried nuclear site that Iranians call Kooh Kolang.

Trump said last week that he was considering using a 22,000-pound GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air Blast bomb, or MOAB, against Pickaxe. Officials say Trump is enamoured with the weapon in part because of its nickname, Mother of All Bombs.

But weapons specialists say that the MOAB explodes above ground, producing a wide blast, and would not likely destroy an underground site like Pickaxe, which is composed of granite. Military officials also warn that the bomb must be delivered by a slow-flying MC-130 transport plane that would be vulnerable to Iranian anti-aircraft fire.

Israel and the United States came close to striking Iran early this month, but Trump again decided at the last minute to postpone the attack, according to US and Israeli defence officials familiar with the details. The decision came shortly before the operation was to begin, after both militaries had made extensive preparations and placed their air forces on the highest state of alert.

The repeated planning efforts followed by Trump’s decisions against new attacks has caused “day-to-day whiplash” among military planners, said one commander, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss operational matters, as they try to stay poised to carry out whatever military option Trump decides in the coming weeks.

In each round of the war so far, Iran’s leadership has become less conciliatory, convinced that the ultimate US and Israeli goal is to topple its government.

Iran’s new supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, remains an enigma to US and Israeli intelligence officials. Some officials say he is not as powerful as his father, who was killed early in the war, and that hard-line members of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard make key decisions.

Iranian officials say they are aware of the US war planning and have been developing their own new targets and tactics.

Peiman Salehi, a political analyst in Tehran, said that if Pickaxe is attacked, part of Iran’s plans to retaliate would be to strike major oil refineries in Saudi Arabia, including Aramco because that would immediately spike oil and energy prices.

“The war has made us understand that the best leverage for pressuring Trump is increasing oil and energy prices because it will hurt the American people,” Salehi said.

Mahdi Mohammadi, a senior adviser to Iran’s negotiator General Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, said on social media this week that the idea that the United States would wrap up another round of strikes on Iran within 72 hours was a “fantasy” and that Iran would determine when the war would end. He noted that Trump said in February that the war would last two weeks.

“Our attacks will be more fierce, creative and different,” Mohammadi said. “We are determined and confident and strong planning has been put in place.”

This article originally appeared in The New York Times.

Start the day with a summary of the day’s most important and interesting stories, analysis and insights. Sign up for our Morning Edition newsletter.