US-backed negotiations between Venezuela’s interim government and a faction of the opposition will begin on Saturday, with the country’s most prominent opposition leader absent.
The talks, aimed at remaking the country’s political system ahead of eventual elections, highlight Washington’s unprecedented influence over Venezuelan politics since US President Donald Trump’s administration removed Nicolas Maduro in a January raid and installed acting President Delcy Rodriguez.
They will be led on the government side by Rodriguez’s brother Jorge, the head of the National Assembly and a longtime negotiator at previous talks with the US and the opposition.
The opposition delegation – which the US backs over efforts to overhaul the country’s electoral council and top court to ensure free and fair elections – will be led by Dinorah Figuera. Three sources familiar with the matter said the US asked Figuera to lead because she is the head of an opposition-dominated national assembly cohort elected in 2015 that is still recognized by the US as the country’s last democratically elected legislature.
Not participating in the talks, to the chagrin of some Venezuela observers, is Nobel Peace Prize winner Maria Corina Machado, the country’s most popular opposition figure.
Machado left Venezuela late last year to receive her Nobel after living mostly in hiding since a contested 2024 presidential election. But she has vowed to return to Venezuela to help with the response to June’s devastating twin earthquakes, frustrating US officials who believe it is not the right time.
Trump has denied media reports that his administration told Machado not to return. Machado has repeatedly been publicly sidelined by Washington since Maduro’s removal, with US officials saying she does not have enough support to lead the country.
Before a mid-June visit by Figuera to Caracas, Machado was not even aware that talks were set to begin, three sources said. Another source said Machado had been informed about the talks but not invited to join the opposition delegation because she is not a member of the 2015 assembly.
“Machado is right to distance herself from this process,” said a person with knowledge of the negotiations. “If the negotiations go well and lead to free elections, she will become Venezuela’s first female president. If the negotiations go badly, she will have proven her point: that negotiations need representatives who have legitimacy and who are accepted and viewed positively by the public.”
The negotiators face the task of producing results quickly enough to build confidence among Venezuelans and to make up for Machado’s absence from the talks, the source said.
Machado said last week that while she would not participate, she would not stand in the way of “real progress” at the talks and would evaluate their success based on whether democratic institutions are restored, political prisoners freed and elections scheduled, among other issues.
Machado and Figuera did not respond to requests for comment. At the talks, the interim government has said it will push for remaining US sanctions to be lifted. The US has temporarily eased sanctions on Venezuela’s oil, gas and gold sectors in the past on the back of agreements between the government and the opposition for fair elections.
US OFFERS SECURITY
Venezuela’s opposition has repeatedly held talks over the years with the erstwhile Maduro government, which has stuffed top courts and the electoral authority with its own allies.
A negotiated deal for 2024 elections promised a fair contest and full opposition participation, but Machado was barred from participating. The US and international electoral observers said her movement won some two-thirds of votes cast, but electoral and judicial authorities backed Maduro as the winner, keeping him in power.
The absence of Machado’s faction from the upcoming talks effectively excludes an important segment of the country, said Ricardo Rios, head of the Poder y Estrategia political risk consultancy. But Venezuela’s opposition has long been deeply divided, so it is unlikely to lead to new fractures, he said.
The United States has said Venezuela must first stabilize and economically recover before elections can take place. Trump has eased some sanctions and repeatedly praised Rodriguez’s leadership.
Machado is welcome to play a role at the talks if Venezuelans support her presence there, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, a longtime supporter of Machado, told journalists this month, adding the US is there to facilitate, but not dictate, the talks.
“In order for Venezuela to have the reconciliation that that country requires to move forward on all these other projects, every element of Venezuelan society needs to be represented. And obviously, Maria Corina represents an important element of that,” Rubio said.
US involvement offers security for the opposition, whose members and leaders have regularly faced detention and prosecution on charges they say are politically motivated, one opposition source said.
One opposition source close to Figuera’s group called the US a “central player” in the talks, saying it would not sit by the sidelines.
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