USMNT’s most likely Round of 32 opponent at 2026 World Cup revealed

LOS ANGELES — The United States might finally know who its opponents are for the Round of 32.

After spending the better part of the week wondering which path the World Cup bracket would take, the Americans now have a clear picture of what almost certainly awaits them in the knockout round.

Thanks to Bosnia and Herzegovina’s 3-1 victory over Qatar and Switzerland’s 2-1 win over Canada on Wednesday, Group B is officially settled. Bosnia and Herzegovina finished third, making it the overwhelming favorite to meet the United States on July 1 at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara.

The numbers leave little room for suspense. FIFA’s tournament projections, based on nearly 500 bracket permutations generated before the World Cup began, now place the likelihood of that matchup at greater than 99 percent.

On paper, it is exactly the draw Mauricio Pochettino and the United States hoped for.

The Americans, ranked No. 14 in the latest FIFA World Rankings, secured first place in Group D with commanding victories over Paraguay and Australia, guaranteeing themselves a meeting with the third-place finisher from Groups B, E, F, I or J. Instead of drawing one of the tournament’s traditional heavyweights, they appear headed for No. 62-ranked Bosnia and Herzegovina.

That ranking, however, tells only part of the story.

If anyone inside the U.S. locker room is already thinking about the Round of 16, they’re making a dangerous mistake.

Bosnia and Herzegovina have quietly built one of the more impressive résumés of any underdog in this tournament. It opened the World Cup by earning a 1-1 draw against host nation Canada, refusing to wilt under the pressure of a partisan crowd. Its qualification campaign was even more impressive.

The Dragons defeated Romania. They earned a draw against Austria. Then they eliminated both Wales and Italy in penalty shootouts to punch their ticket to the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Italy entered qualifying ranked 15th in the world, Austria 23rd, Wales 38th and Romania 52nd. Results against those teams prove that Bosnia and Herzegovina is a battle-tested squad comfortable punching above its weight and ready to shock the world.

However, the United States have the momentum of an entire country behind it, and have spent the last two years trying to establish itself as a team that can compete with the elite countries in the world.

Pochettino has repeatedly challenged his players to see themselves as legitimate contenders to lift the 2026 FIFA World Cup trophy, not just participants, sharing his mantra, “Why not us?” that has become a rallying cry for this promising young American team.

Now comes the first knockout match of this new era, and with it the pressure that defines every World Cup.

The bracket has opened up. The opportunity is real. From a talent standpoint, this is a matchup the United States should win.

The operative word, of course, is should.

Because this is soccer. Anything can happen.

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