LONDON — The current situation is too complex to be summarized in a few brief points, as what is unfolding goes far beyond a direct military confrontation between the United States and Israel on one side, and Iran and its allies on the other.
We are witnessing shifts in the balance of power, the instruments of pressure, the future of the American presence in West Asia, and the nature of the regional order that may emerge once the war on Iran comes to an end.
When referring to the Axis of Resistance at this stage, the focus is primarily on the forces actively engaged in the confrontation, foremost among them the Islamic Republic of Iran, alongside Yemen. Judging by the course of the war, the performance of these forces has exceeded expectations, and the axis is now in a position to secure additional gains. Such gains do not necessarily depend on achieving a swift military victory, but rather on managing the confrontation in a way that exhausts the enemy’s options and progressively narrows its room for maneuver.
A battle can also be won on points; it does not necessarily require a single decisive blow to bring everything to an end. Whenever the enemy opens a new front of pressure or takes measures aimed at besieging Iran and forcing it to retreat, the axis finds an opportunity to activate another instrument of pressure, one that has either not been used before or has yet to be deployed to its full potential.
The axis is thus opening new fronts of pressure and changing the rules of confrontation. The significance of this approach lies in the fact that the enemy is no longer facing a fixed set of instruments whose capabilities and limits it already understands. Instead, it is confronting a range of capabilities that can be activated in response to developments on the battlefield.
This highlights the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, which represents a powerful lever of pressure linked to energy supplies, trade, and the global economy. Alongside it is the Bab al-Mandab Strait, which could also affect maritime traffic and international trade routes if the instruments of pressure associated with it were activated.
The central point is that when the United States and the Israeli occupation entity open a new avenue of pressure, this does not necessarily mean they are expanding their options at Iran’s expense. On the contrary, such moves may prompt the axis to activate countermeasures that shift the pressure toward areas far more sensitive to its adversaries.
This is the point that deserves particular attention: the ability to shift the confrontation from one arena to another, and from the military sphere to the geopolitical and economic domains. Such flexibility gives the Axis of Resistance considerable leverage over international calculations and decisions.
Instruments of power are not limited to missiles, aircraft, or land and naval confrontations. They also encompass geographical positioning, maritime corridors, energy resources, regional relations, the ability to withstand attrition, the reorganization of decision-making centers, and the availability of economic and military alternatives. For this reason, the axis’s latent power remains greater than many realize, including U.S. President Donald Trump and some political leaders both inside and outside Iran.
The issue is not simply a matter of possessing instruments of pressure, but of being able to deploy them at the right moment and in a gradual manner. This approach ensures that all available leverage is not exhausted at once and that the enemy is not given an opportunity to address every instrument simultaneously. The axis has reached an advanced stage in its ability to influence the course of the war, while a portion of its actual capabilities may not yet have been fully revealed.
Beyond strategic analysis, there is also the dimension of faith and divine providence. Alongside political and military calculations, there is a sense that what is unfolding cannot be fully explained through human calculations alone, and that Almighty God is directing and guiding events according to His will.
This feeling is rooted in the way new capabilities have emerged at different stages of the confrontation.
It is also reflected in the transformations that have compelled forces previously considered unlikely to engage in direct confrontation to confront a reality vastly different from the one that existed before. For example, who could have imagined that the Strait of Hormuz would become an instrument of strategic leverage, followed by the Strait of Bab al-Mandab, to the point that, according to this assessment, 40 percent of global energy flows would come under the scrutiny and potential control of the Axis of Resistance?
This sense of faith does not eliminate the need for political and military analysis. Rather, it forms part of a broader perspective that connects the patience exercised in earlier stages, the building of institutions, and the accumulation of capabilities with the eventual emergence of their results at a decisive moment of confrontation.
Disclaimer : This story is auto aggregated by a computer programme and has not been created or edited by DOWNTHENEWS. Publisher: tehrantimes.com
