It wasn’t that long ago that Kirk Cousins, in his first stint with the Minnesota Vikings, was the quarterback who could never win the big one. Everyone remembers this critique of him.
These days, Kirk Cousins is 38. And somehow, everyone spent days and weeks arguing that the only way for the Vikings to have a chance to win the big one was to trade for Cousins.
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That trade did happen, and it was perfectly reasonable for the Vikings to see if Cousins can guide them to an NFC North title and maybe a playoff run. They have the defense for it but we saw on Monday night that the offense was beyond repair with the quarterback situation they had. Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell was hesitant to announce Cousins would start Sunday against the Green Bay Packers, but the Vikings didn’t trade for Cousins to watch Kyler Murray or Carson Wentz start in a huge divisional game.
While the trade for Cousins was reasonable, the Vikings still have the fourth-best quarterback in the division and the fourth-best offense in the division as well. Cousins is an upgrade but mostly because the Vikings had a dreadful quarterback situation.
The Packers didn’t do anything at the trade deadline but it might be because they’ve been on quite a roll. They were not good through three weeks but somehow have emerged as one of the better teams in the NFL since then. Since Week 4, they’re fourth in EPA (expected points added) per play on offense and third in EPA per play allowed on defense. It’s a good team.
Anyone will have issues with the Vikings’ defense and we’ll see if the Packers’ deep passing game can function against Minnesota’s many blitzes. But Packers -3 is the pick. Taking the Vikings and Cousins, five days after rejoining the team, against a red-hot team is too much to ask.
New Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins (8) shown facing the Packers in a 2023 game. (AP Photo/Matt Ludtke, File)
(ASSOCIATED PRESS)
Here are the rest of the picks against the spread for Week 10 of the NFL season:
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Commanders (+2.5) over Giants
The Giants are three games up on the Commanders in the NFC East, but New York isn’t that great. The Commanders are come in as the more desperate team. Their season is all but over if they lose on Thursday. That’s not the best reason to pick a team, but it’s good enough in a game between two flawed teams.
Patriots (+2.5) over Lions
This is the NFL’s last early-morning game of the season. The Lions and Patriots meet in Germany. The Patriots are coming off a bad loss to the Packers, and have their running back issues with Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson out. One factor to consider is the Lions aren’t the same team outdoors. Jared Goff’s rating in domes is 102.9 and outdoors it is 92.4. There is some noise in those numbers, and Goff’s ratings haven’t had that big of a gap the past two seasons, but Detroit also just scored 19 points at Miami last week. That and the Lions’ defensive deficiencies are enough to take the Patriots and the points.
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Texans (-4.5) over Browns
The Browns have a better record, but also a -35 point differential. It’s not like the Texans have been great, but there’s a path for them to make the playoffs. They also know they can’t drop games like this one. C.J. Stroud is playing well enough that points shouldn’t be too hard for Houston to come by.
Titans (+10.5) over Jaguars
The Jaguars have taken over as my Super Bowl pick after the deadline. However, 10.5 is a lot of points in the NFL and the Titans have played three close games in a row. They’re coming off their bye and have some extra rest. The Jaguars can’t blow everyone out, right?
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Colts (-3.5) over Dolphins
It’s very hard to take the Colts, especially because the Dolphins are playing hard. The Colts played hard last week, but have to be deflated after losing that game to the Cowboys in the final minutes and seeing more players traded away. But it’s even harder to back new Dolphins quarterback Kyle McCord, a 2025 sixth-round pick who has never taken an NFL snap, playing with a subpar group. McCord gets the start for Miami with Malik Willis on injured reserve.
Jets (+8) over Bills
Talk about an ugly NFL side to take. The Jets are not good. But the Bills are coming off a physical game in Minnesota on Monday night and now go on the road to face the Jets on short rest. It seems unwise to take the Jets, but point spreads exist for a reason.
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Panthers (+2.5) over Saints
The Saints are probably better in theory than reality. They won last week, but needed to defend a two-point conversion in overtime to knock off Shedeur Sanders and the Browns. It feels like the Saints have the potential to be the best team in the NFC South, but there’s not much evidence they are. The Panthers are in a slump but have been the better team.
Chiefs (-3.5) over Falcons
It’s not like the Falcons trading Jessie Bates III makes them significantly worse, but it’s a difficult message for the locker room. It makes it seem like the front office is waving the white flag. In reality they got an offer they couldn’t turn down, but it’s still worth wondering how the remaining players will react. And Kansas City is a pretty good team.
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Cardinals (+9.5) over Rams
For the rest of the season, or at least until Puka Nacua or Davante Adams returns, the Rams will try to survive by running the ball and playing defense in low-scoring games. There’s no much explosiveness in the offense without any dangerous receivers. That will make them tough to back when the spread is large. Can Carson Beck lead the Arizona offense to enough points against a good Rams defense to cover any spread? That’s the key question.
Seahawks (-6.5) over Raiders
This isn’t a pick due to Fernando Mendoza facing the Seahawks defense, though that is a factor. It’s because the Raiders defense is horrible. Since Week 3, after the Raiders had faced the offensively challenged Dolphins and Chargers, they’re last in the NFL in EPA by a wide margin. They’re 32nd in yards allowed and points allowed. The Seahawks will be able to move the ball, even with Drew Lock at quarterback.
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49ers (-4.5) over Cowboys
There are no signs the Cowboys are ready to have some kind of breakout. Last week they almost lost to a Colts team that has already given up on the season. And now they’re supposed to keep it close against the 49ers, who have arguably been the best team in the NFL?
Steelers (+3.5) over Bengals
The Joe Burrow for MVP bandwagon is still running, but it’s hard to lay more than a field goal in what should be a great divisional game. The Steelers can run the ball, and run defense is a weakness of the Bengals. They’re last in the NFL in yards allowed per carry. Also, the Steelers are coming off a bye while the Bengals play right after a game in Paris, which is the type of massive rest disadvantage that the NFL should do a better job avoiding. The Bengals are good but this isn’t a great matchup or a good spot for them.
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Ravens (-4.5) over Chargers
The Chargers will cover a spread this season. They haven’t yet. They are the last team in the NFL to not cover the spread this season. But we’ll take that loss when it comes because proactively taking the truly miserable Chargers in hopes they finally cover is not an enjoyable exercise. Also, the Ravens have three days of extra rest and perhaps a little bit of renewed hope with Jacoby Brissett coming aboard.
Last week: 9-6
Season to date: 62-71-2
Disclaimer : This story is auto aggregated by a computer programme and has not been created or edited by DOWNTHENEWS. Publisher: Sports.yahoo.com
