Shifting political influences in the White House may soon ripple outward through transatlantic relations. Jeff Rathke, President of the German-American Institute, unpacks what a Democratic-led Congress might change, and what it won’t.
German leadership reacted quickly to the US mid-term vote last week and a landslide win for the Democratic party that has been dubbed the ‘blue wave’. Views on what the US shift in political power means for Germany, however, were mixed.
Germany’s Foreign Minister, for example, initially responded with a note of hope that a Democrat-led congress might take more initiative in funding and supporting Ukraine’s defence. But Chancellor Friedrich Merz was quick to tone down expectations, suggesting that US President Donald Trump’s foreign policy aims and tactics were not likely to change.
The Local spoke with the President of the German-American Institute, Jeffrey Rathke, to unpack what the shifting political landscape in the US really means for Germany and transatlantic relations around defence and trade looking forward.
European security
Asked what the election meant for German and European security, Rathke told The Local, “The honest answer is that we cannot be sure what specific outcomes will result from the change in the Congressional majorities.”
He added that two key factors would determine Democrat’s influence on US foreign policy in the coming term. The first being how assertively Democratic majorities in the House and the Senate wield their control over budget decisions, including threatening a government shutdown to influence the Trump administration. And the second being which issues the Democrats make their highest priorities.
Regarding Ukraine, which Germany maintains is key to its own security, Rathke notes that restoring US military supplies “could be an uphill battle”.
However, he suggests that “at a minimum [US congress] may be able to pressure the administration to ensure that the flow of arms provided through the European-financed PURL program will be restored to normal.”
Additionally, Rathke said, “Any attempts by the Trump administration to force an unfair settlement on Ukraine to the advantage of Russia are likely to generate intense Congressional attention…”
READ ALSO: Germany’s AfD and populist BSW pass motion to end aid for Ukraine
US military presence in Europe will remain
Outside of Ukraine, Rathke says the US will continue to play a key role in European defence.
He notes that the current Republican-led congress recently passed a National Defence Authorization Act, which established that US troop numbers in Europe should not fall below 76,000.
“That bill also mandated that the US continue to provide the Supreme Allied Commander Europe within the NATO military leadership,” Rathke said, adding that these pro-NATO and Europe-aligned positions have broad support from both Republicans and Democrats.
That act makes clear that the US maintains its duty to support European defence, despite occasional threats from the Trump administration to pull US troops out of Germany.
READ ALSO: Who would really be affected by the removal of US troops from Germany?
Rathke suggests that the incoming Democrat-led congress will keep eyes on the Department of Defence’s posture review, and can be expected to use legislative and budgetary tools to limit any indication that the Trump administration might weaken US support for European security.
“Congress cannot dictate policy to the President,” Rathke said. “But they can make it very difficult, and if they choose they can make the administration pay a high price on issues that have public support.”
Trade
US-German trade policy, and tariffs in particular, is an area where a Democrat-led legislature may not have a whole lot of leverage.
In the US, the executive branch has accumulated significant trade authorities, and Trump has pushed the boundaries of this authority with his tariff policies.
“Congress may try to reclaim its tariff authorities, but that would depend on legislation, which Trump would likely veto,” Rathke said.
He added that Congress could try to limit tariff powers somewhat within “must-pass” legislation like the budget, but that any move to do so would be hotly contested “since Trump sees the tariff instrument as one of the most effective in his toolbox.”
READ ALSO: EU agrees to implement US trade pact after Trump threats
But Rathke notes that trade policy is not only a political issue but also a legal and judicial issue, and that US courts have stepped in to limit some of Trump’s asserted powers in the last year.
Rebuilding trust
Beyond the more immediate questions around Germany-US relations, there’s a bigger question: ‘Does Germany still see the US as a trustworthy ally?’
A notable shift in US political posturing under the Trump administration has increasingly led German and European leaders to question that relationship.
Germany’s own efforts to grow its military are partly due to that uncertainty, and increasingly some European leaders are also questioning reliance on US software and tech.
“The asymmetric trust gap between the US and Europe is a major issue,” Rathke said. But he also sees “strong public support on both sides of the Atlantic for cooperation”.
“The midterm election results underscore the point that nothing is inevitable in American politics, but that principle applies not only to the party balance but also to the political priorities in the US.”
One priority that’s gone overlooked in the US in recent years appears to be defence production, an issue of increasing importance as munitions are further depleted in the Iran war.
Rathke sees this as practical footing for interest in cooperation with allies.
“Hedging will remain important for Europe,” he said, but there are also “practical grounds” for strengthening cooperation, which is an initiative that Democrats would likely also support.
Disclaimer : This story is auto aggregated by a computer programme and has not been created or edited by DOWNTHENEWS. Publisher: thelocal.de
