What Donald Trump will do after the midterms – lose or lose

The day after the midterm elections is a time of both reflection and projection. As America’s leaders and citizens begin to comprehend what happened at the ballot box the day before, they also start to predict how that will play out at the main event in two years’ time.

Two recent presidents got clobbered at their midterm litmus tests. In 2006, president George W. Bush, besieged by forever wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, and with a weakening economy that would morph into the GFC, saw a Democratic tidal wave sweep control of both the House and Senate. Facing the media, Bush said the electoral defeat he’d suffered was “a thumping”.

In 2010, just two years into Barrack Obama’s first term, Democrats lost 63 seats in the House, obliterating Obama’s majority to pass legislation. Obama faced up to it: he said he got a “shellacking” and that the losses were “humbling”.

We will never hear those words from Donald Trump. When the incumbent president got his own shellacking in his 2018 midterms – with Democrats picking up 41 seats to win control of the House but Republicans keeping the Senate – Trump tweeted: “Tremendous success tonight.” The new Democratic majority in the House would lead to Trump’s impeachment twice over the next two years.

On the day after the midterms in 2006, Bush announced the resignation of Donald Rumsfeld, his secretary of defence and the official most identified with management of the forever wars. Trump will not fire his secretary of war, Pete Hegseth, over his management of the war in Iran, but before the new Congress commences on January 3, 2027, Hegseth will face a vote on his impeachment led by Thomas Massie, a Republican from Kentucky whose career was ended by Trump earlier this year. And if that effort fails, the Democrats will try again later in January, with every prospect for Hegseth’s impeachment.

The days after the midterms are also marked by resignations and retirements in the White House and throughout the executive branch. There is heavy speculation that Susie Wiles, Trump’s chief of staff, might exit. (There has been emphatic denial by Trump on this so far.) Other members of the cabinet may want to reclaim their lives.

In the immediate days after the midterms, Trump is likely to join with Israel’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu and launch attacks on Iran of overwhelming force to bring the country to its knees and sue for peace. This expansion of the war, with no certainty of its outcome, will provoke fear and doubt in the US and across the world.

As the polls close on voting day and results come in, exceptional attention will be paid – because of Trump’s attempts to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election, culminating in the January 6 insurrection and attack on the Capitol – to the counting and reporting of votes. The Department of Justice has announced that 1000 poll watchers will be dispersed to certain areas of the county to monitor voting in areas deemed highly competitive. Uniformed security forces will be deployed to polling places in big cities with large numbers of Democratic voters.

On the night and in the days following, as the ballot count proceeds, the Associated Press will call the results of the races – just like Casey Briggs of the ABC does here in Australia. The AP’s call is considered authoritative. Trump will demand, especially in Senate races, that Republicans who are trailing the vote count not concede. This will set the stage for battles in the states over their certification of winners. Many have speculated that Trump will order authorities to seize voting machines and ballots and conduct their own recounts. But the Democratic candidate’s campaign in Alaska is under heavy scrutiny over alleged attempts to fiddle with the official ballot and skew the outcome.

Shortly after the election, two scenarios for control of Congress will take shape. Democrats are all but assured they will win control of the House. Speaker Mike Johnson effectively conceded defeat two weeks before the election: “In the unlikely scenario where we lost the majority, I would expect my colleagues would ask me to continue leading this conference, even if we have divided government,” he said.

Democrats will immediately rally behind their current leader, Hakeem Jeffries, who will become the first Black speaker of the House. The Democrats’ legislative program on taking power will be centred on the affordability crisis and the legislation they will pass to help households across the country. Jeffries has been quite clear: their priorities are housing, healthcare, gas, utilities and energy costs, groceries and goods, and caregiving.

Impeachment of Trump will be deferred – for now. The House Democrats will commence huge investigations of Trump, his alleged corruption and $US2 billion increase in his personal wealth, his obsessive overriding of Congress’ power of the purse and his impoundment and unilateral reassignment of funds Congress appropriated for specific programs, his overt control over investigations and prosecutions by the Department of Justice against his cohort of enemies he wants to punish, and other abuses of executive power.

If the Democratic “blue wave” dissipates in the final days of this campaign, and Republicans can hold their seats including Maine, Texas, Iowa and Kansas, the Republicans will continue to control the Senate. This replay of 2018 would mean that Trump can continue to win Senate confirmation of his high-level appointees: Supreme Court justices and other judges and nominees for the cabinet and executive branch agencies.

If the Democrats can claim the Senate in the days after the midterms, a much more powerful scenario will take hold. The two bodies can work together to pass legislation on affordability and send it to the president. Trump will veto what he receives. Democrats will have established their agenda for the American people, and Trump will have reaffirmed his fidelity to his Make America Great Again supporters. That, in turn, will set the stage for the decisive battle over Trumpism: the 2028 presidential election.

Beginning the day after the midterms, journalists will shove their phones in the face of every Democrat who might declare they are running for president. The pool currently includes governors Gavin Newsom of California, Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, JB Pritzker of Illinois, Andy Beshear of Kentucky, Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan; Senators Mark Kelly of Arizona, Chris Murphy of Connecticut, Chris Van Hollen of Maryland, Elissa Slotkin of Michigan; Representatives Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York and Ro Khanna of California; plus notables Rahm Emanuel, a former ambassador, and Pete Buttigieg, a former cabinet officer. Kamala Harris might also make another run.

The earlier a candidate enters the race, the more attention they receive. Stay tuned for announcements beginning in January.

For the Republicans wanting to seek the presidency, this is a much more complicated situation. Under the constitution, Trump is not permitted to seek a third term. But he may yet want to challenge that restriction before the Supreme Court because, he says, he was “cheated” out of the presidency in 2020.

The day Trump declares he will retire is the day he formally becomes a lame duck. Until that moment, he will not enjoy anyone else declaring to run in 2028. Trump does not want any perceived decline of his power, authority and command of media attention. Vice President JD Vance is today in the strongest position to win the Republican nomination for president. Secretary of State Marco Rubio would be a powerful contender. Trump has polled his friends on whom they like better. When asked in the run-up to the midterms whether he was going to endorse JD Vance to succeed him, Trump said: “I never even thought of it, because we’re just too – we have too much time to be. It’s a long way off.”

No, it’s not.

Bruce Wolpe is a senior fellow at the University of Sydney’s United States Studies Centre. He has served on the Democratic staff in the US Congress and as chief of staff to former prime minister Julia Gillard.